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03B.Ockhi 風切導致開眼不順 阿拉伯海近兩年再次有VSCS

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-11-27 15:00 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-12 08:04 編輯

  特強氣旋風暴  
編號:BOB 07 ( 03 B )
名稱 : Ockhi

800px-Ockhi_2017-12-02_Suomi_NPP.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 11 27 14
JTWC升格日期:2017 11 30 02
命名日期  :2017 11 30 15
撤編日期  :2017 12
06 11
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
中心最強風速

印度氣象局 ( IMD ):85 kt ( VSCS )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):100 kts ( Cat.3 )
海平面最低氣壓:976 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
1920px-Ockhi_2017_track.png
  擾動編號資料  

91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6N.85.2E

20171127.0620.himawari-8.ir.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6N.85.2E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 15

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-28 10:45 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-28 16:08 編輯

JTWC 02Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.4N 83.5E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI
LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UNORGANIZED AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 272131Z
89GHZ AMSU IMAGE SHOWS AN ILL DEFINED LLCC WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
SLOW TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
20171128.0200.himawari-8.ircolor.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.4N.83.5E.100pc.jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-29 02:33 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 17Z評級提升MEDIUM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 83.0E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
281317Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
BUT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS STEADILY DEVELOP THE SYSTEM AS
IT TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, BUT INCREASING LAND INTERACTION, OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
BASED ON AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abiosair (2).jpg 20171128.1750.himawari-8.ircolor.91B.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.6N.83E.100pc.jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-11-29 10:33 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
io912017.20171129012936.gif

20171129.0140.himawari-8.ircolor.91B.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.6N.81.7E.100pc.jpg
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霧峰追風者|2017-11-29 15:07 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 升格低壓,編號BOB 07。
BULLETIN NO. : 01 (BOB 07/2017)
TIME OF ISSUE: 1150 HOURS IST DATED: 29.11.2017

Sub: Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal off Sri Lanka Coast
Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that a depression has formed over southwest Bay of
Bengal off Sri Lanka coast. It lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 29th November, 2017 near Latitude 6.5?
N and Longitude 81.8 ?E, about 80 km to the east-southeast of Hambantota and 500 km east southeast of
Kanyakumari. The system is very likely to move westnorthwestwards and cross Sri Lanka coast close to
northeast of Hambantota around noon of today. It would then continue to move west-northwestwards across Sri
Lanka and emerge into Comorin area



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霧峰追風者|2017-11-30 04:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-11-30 06:44 編輯

JTWC 18Z升格TS,編號03B,巔峰暫時上望二級颶風。
io0317.gif
20171129.1920.himawari-8.ircolor.03B.INVEST.35kts.1003mb.6.6N.78.8E.100pc.jpg rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-11-30 09:37 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 強度升"深低壓",底層建立中..
rsmc.pdf (285.11 KB, 下載次數: 0)
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Meow|2017-11-30 13:46 | 顯示全部樓層
這是開眼?
20171130.0430.msg1.x.vis2km.03BTHREE.40kts-1003mb-75N-773E.100pc.jpg
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