03B.Ockhi 風切導致開眼不順阿拉伯海近兩年再次有VSCS

Meow · 2017-11-30 15:19

升格氣旋風暴並命名Ockhi。

Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that the deep depression over Comorin area moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 38 kmph during past 06 hours and intensified into a cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30th November, 2017 over Comorin area and neighbourhood near Latitude 7.5o N and Longitude 77.5o E, about 340 km west- northwest of Galle (Sri Lanka), 60 km south of Kanyakumari, 120 km southwest of Thiruvananthapuram and 480 km east-southeast of Minicoy. The system is very likely to move west- northwestwards towards Lakshadweep Islands and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours.

Meow · 2017-11-30 19:47

高層眼填了，但實際上底層掃描結果有所改善。

蜜露 · 2017-11-30 22:50

底層已經成形 , GFS也看好未來 . 可能直撲西印度 .

但是到了印度強度已經剩低壓

Meow · 2017-12-1 11:25

從Ockhi開始，NMC網站開設「北印度洋熱帶氣旋公報」單獨網頁。

http://www.nmc.cn/publish/typhoo ... yclone-bulletin.htm

霧峰追風者 · 2017-12-1 14:41

本帖最後由霧峰追風者於 2017-12-1 14:44 編輯

IMD 強度升"強烈氣旋風暴"。

rsmc (1).pdf (640 KB, 下載次數: 0)

JTWC 06Z速報維持TS上限( 60kts )，東側眼牆今天一直缺一角....
20171201.0408.metopb.89rgb.03B.OCKHI.60kts.988mb.8.7N.74.2E.065pc.jpg

20171201.0600.himawari-8.ir.03B.OCKHI.60kts.988mb.8.7N.74.2E.100pc.jpg

霧峰追風者 · 2017-12-1 22:34

本帖最後由霧峰追風者於 2017-12-2 08:11 編輯

IMD 強度升特強氣旋風暴
Screenshot_2017-12-01-21-50-48_com.google.android.apps.docs_1512137350958.jpg

Screenshot_2017-12-01-21-50-57_com.google.android.apps.docs_1512137335776.jpg

Screenshot_2017-12-01-21-51-08_com.google.android.apps.docs_1512137315354.jpg

Screenshot_2017-12-01-21-51-23_com.google.android.apps.docs_1512137298915.jpg

JTWC 12Z升一級颶風
io032017.20171201135749.gif

霧峰追風者 · 2017-12-2 15:14

本帖最後由霧峰追風者於 2017-12-2 15:15 編輯

風切干擾，高層無法有效開眼，強度預估已經到達顛峰，JTWC 00Z升二級颶風，06Z強度略為減弱。
io0317 (1).gif

20171202.0527.metopb.89rgb.03B.OCKHI.80kts.975mb.9.2N.72E.050pc.jpg

霧峰追風者 · 2017-12-3 05:40

JTWC 18Z升三級颶風

TPIO10 PGTW 022101

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (OCKHI)

B. 02/2030Z

C. 11.50N

D. 69.65E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T4.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.10 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO CONSTRAINTS (HOLD CI FOR 12HRS, HOLD CI 1/2
OR 1 T-NUMBER HIGHER THAN FT).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/1632Z  10.82N  69.80E  MMHS
02/1716Z  10.98N  69.73E  MMHS
11/2310Z  8.50N  74.35E  SSMS

MARTINEZ