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BOB 08(04B) 南海擾動出口發展 環境不佳 無緣命名

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霧峰追風者|2017-12-7 15:53 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z改編"92B"
  基本資料  
編號    :92 B
擾動編號日期:2017 12 07 15
92B.INVEST.30kts.1004mb.12.3N.88.1E

20171207.0710.himawari-8.ircolor.92B.INVEST.30kts.1004mb.12.3N.88.1E.100pc.jpg


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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-8 14:40 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-8 14:47 編輯

IMD 強度升"深低壓",中心半裸,逐漸北上。
rsmc (3).pdf (838.74 KB, 下載次數: 0)
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-9 02:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-9 06:43 編輯

JTWC 18Z速報風速達標,看看等等會不會升格。
WMBas208.png.png latestNI.png 20171208.1820.himawari-8.ircolor.92B.INVEST.40kts.993mb.18.3N.86.8E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-9 06:38 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z升格TS,編號"04B",預估直接北上直襲印度。
WTIO31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080136ZDEC17//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 86.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 86.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 19.8N 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 21.2N 87.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 22.6N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 86.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04B. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 081514Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN
AREA OF 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 04B.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (10
TO 15 KNOTS) TO THE SOUTH OF TC 04B. HOWEVER, AS TC 04B TRACKS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
VALUES (25 TO 30 KNOTS). POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS MODERATE AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS POOR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 26
DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 04B IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL STEER TC
04B NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AS A RESULT OF UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TC 04B WILL WEAKEN IN INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 24 BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 080030 COR).//
NNNN
io0417.gif rgb-animated (5).gif

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-10 03:30 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 06Z直接發"FW"。
io0417 (1).gif rgb-animated (6).gif

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