周子堯@FB

JTWC 再度升為TS，且預測風速將增強至40kts...

alu

啟德風暴襲菲 增至43死45失蹤




中央廣播電台  黃啟霖2017年12月月19日 下午 06:01

熱帶風暴啟德(Kai-Tak)侵襲菲律賓東部和中部，菲國國家救災機構今天(19日)指出，截至目前為止，已知風災造成43人死亡，另外45人失蹤，失蹤民眾生還的希望渺茫。

啟德在中部比利南省(Biliran)引發嚴重土石流，該省災難風險縮減暨管理部門官員戴西洛(Sofronio Dacillo)今天(19日)表示，在43名死者當中，比利南省佔了30人，另有31人失蹤。戴西洛表示，搜救行動還在持續進行，但沒有發現任何生還者，只見到罹難者的屍體。他們還沒有放棄希望，但生還者生機渺茫。

比利南是位在馬尼拉東南方大約500公里處的小島，在這次風災中災情最為嚴重。

政府當局指出，因為風災而疏散的居民超過10萬人，在這個星期，仍有大約半數災民還住在救災中心。

氣象預報人員表示，啟德颱風是在17日下午威力減弱，成為熱帶性低氣壓，最大陣風時速80公里。

菲律賓平均每年遭遇20個重大風暴侵襲，造成多人喪命。

霧峰追風者

JMA 判定減弱為熱帶低壓，剩下低層環流...

熱帯低気圧
平成29年12月22日10時05分 発表

<22日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        南シナ海
中心位置        北緯 6度00分(6.0度)
東経 106度00分(106.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西南西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1004hPa

霧峰追風者

目前在馬來西亞進岸滯留，未來可能會併入天秤颱風環流內。

Meow

JTWC再評Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 32W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
2.7N 104.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT,
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 231132Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED BUT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE, THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY REGENERATE AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE TS 33W APPROACHES. IF 32W
REGENERATES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TS 33W
WILL HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z取消評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 32W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 104.7E, IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT NEAR 32W IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
DUE TO THE STIFLING INFLUENCE OF TY 33W'S UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY 32W'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDING TY 33W.

JMA 判定消散...

周子堯@FB

JTWC 06z去除評級，認定將被TY-33W吸收

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 32W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 104.7E, IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT NEAR 32W IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
DUE TO THE STIFLING INFLUENCE OF TY 33W'S UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY 32W'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW FEEDING TY 33W.