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1727 天秤 環境轉差漸減弱 將進入泰國灣

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-12-13 09:45 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-3-17 15:52 編輯

  中度颱風  
編號:1727 ( 33 W )
名稱:天秤 ( Tembin )
800px-Tembin_2017-12-24_0550Z.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 12 13 08
升格熱低日期:2017 12 16 09
命名日期  :2017 12 21 02
停編日期  :2017 12 26 08
登陸地點  :菲律賓 民答那峨省 比斯利格市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB):33 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :35 m/s ( 70 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):80 kts ( Cat.1 )

海平面最低氣壓與暴風半徑
海平面最低氣壓:970 百帕
七級風半徑  :150 公里
十級風半徑  :050 公里

  過去路徑圖  
1280px-Tembin_2017_track.png
  擾動編號資料  

97W.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.3.7N.149.6E

20171213.0100.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3.7N.149.6E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-13 13:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-13 13:10 編輯

EC和GFS 數值都看好發展。
GFS 預測強度比較高娛樂預測..
gfs216h.png

EC 預測12中下旬雙颱...
ec216h.png


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GFS海燕即將重現嗎??  發表於 2017-12-14 06:14
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霧峰追風者|2017-12-14 13:50 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-14 13:53 編輯

JTWC 05Z評級LOW
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N
153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132337Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING,
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 132336Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS LOCATED AROUND THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NAVGEM
INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OTHER MODELS
INDICATING WEAKER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg 20171214.0510.himawari-8.ircolor.97W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.2N.153.5E.100pc.jpg 97W_gefs_latest.png gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_37.png

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上看強烈颱風100kts.930hpa.  發表於 2017-12-14 18:11
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霧峰追風者|2017-12-15 22:12 | 顯示全部樓層
目前在爆對流,型態也改善很多,13Z風速來到20kts
20171215.1340.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.2.3N.148.9E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2017-12-15 22:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-15 22:35 編輯

JTWC 14Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.1N 150.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 148.9E, APPROXIMATELY 353
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151157Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY
DEFINED LLCC. A 151158Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS
ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA
WITH VERY WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
AID DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg
20171215.1400.himawari-8.ircolor.97W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.2.3N.148.9E.100pc.jpg 97W_gefs_latest.png


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有強颱的潛力  發表於 2017-12-16 02:26
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

zjk369|2017-12-16 07:14 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA3時已發布LPA 2017121603.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-12-16 10:24 | 顯示全部樓層
esrl.eps.ecmb.hit.97W.2017.168.png EC與GFS均相當看好後期發展
不過路徑可能跟啟德差不多@@~
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霧峰追風者|2017-12-16 10:44 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 09時升格熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 05N 146E WNW SLOWLY.
17121609.png 20171216.0200.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.5.2N.145.2E.100pc.jpg

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