(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 142.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY
364 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 172353Z AMSU METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ILL-DEFINED AND
ELONGATED LLC WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE
LLC. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
DISTURBANCE REMAINING IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM
RESTS IN AN AREA OF WARM SSTS (30-31 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING THE
DISTURBANCES FUELING PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN MIXED SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN CONSOLIDATION WITH NO AGREEMENT ON TRACK MOTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW
JMA 15時降格低壓區
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 145E ALMOST STATIONARY.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 138.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 50
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP IN TO AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. A 200054Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF
20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM WITH 10-15 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY FAVORABLE, WITH AN ELONGATED REGION OF
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT IS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE MSI LOOP. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
AND GENERALLY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
