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02F→03F(91P)

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-12-16 13:24 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-21 07:23 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :02 F→03 F ( 91 P )
擾動編號日期:2017 12 16 13
撤編日期  :2017 12 19 21
91P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.14.2S.177.9E

20171216.0452.goes-15.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.14.2S.177.9E.055pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-17 11:27 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號熱帶擾動02F。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 162342 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 178.0W AT
162100UTC. TD02F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
ON HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE VIS AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC IN THE PAST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW WIND SHEAR. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND INITIALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MOVING IT SOUTHEAST AND
WEAKENING IT AS IT MOVE INTO AREA OF HIGH SHEAR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
**********

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

20171217.0220.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.91PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-142S-1788E.100pc.jpg


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-12-19 11:39 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 又編熱帶擾動03F,定位比較接近NRL。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.8S 171.4W AT
182100UTC. TD03F MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION HAS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LLCC EXPOSED.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER
RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS
UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH NO INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
20171219.0252.goes-15.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.16.5S.170.9W.100pc.jpg


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