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霧峰追風者|2017-12-28 03:16
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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-28 06:45 編輯
JTWC 18Z升格"02S"，首報風速40ktsWTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (HILDA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262251ZDEC2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (HILDA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 121.6E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.2S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.5S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 121.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02S. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 271810Z HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 271226Z OSCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES OVER LAND. TC 02S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 262300).//
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