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04F(93P) 中心半裸 逐漸南下

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2017-12-22 22:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-12-24 22:25 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :93 P
擾動編號日期:2017 12 22 22
撤編日期  :2017 12 24 20
93P.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.14.6S.173.5E

20171222.1320.himawari8.x.ir1km_bw.93PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-146S-1735E.100pc.jpg

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簽到天數: 601 天

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霧峰追風者|2017-12-22 22:28 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號"04F"並發佈GW
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 220836 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.3S 173.5E AT
220600UTC. TD04F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED
ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS
UPTO 700HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM  AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
************
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
GALE WARNING 002 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 221244 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.3S 173.7E AT
221200UTC. POSITION POOR. TD04F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 80 TO 140 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
TD04F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH TO WEST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 001.



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霧峰追風者|2017-12-23 04:35 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-12-23 04:45 編輯

JTWC 19Z評級Low,中心半裸。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.7S 174E, APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 221836Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WRAPPING INTO THE EXPOSED LLCC,
AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG
OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, 93P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BORDERING ON HIGH VWS
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT ARE MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ONLY A
SHALLOW LAYER OF 26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AROUND THE SYSTEM, AND
SSTS DECREASING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH. THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
HAS 93P AS A BORDERLINE WARM CORE SYSTEM, LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO
COLD-CORE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH WEAKENING PROJECTED AFTER 1-2
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg 20171222.1950.himawari-8.ircolor.93P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.16.7S.174E.100pc.jpg 93P_geps_latest.png

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