霧峰追風者

  二級熱帶氣旋  
編號：04 F ( 09 P )
名稱：Mona

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 12 月 30 日 09 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 01 月 03 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 01 月 03 日 07 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 01 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 ( FMS )：50 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 ( JTWC )：50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
98P.INVEST.15kts-1007mb-11.8S-156.5E


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

周子堯@FB

JTWC 13Z評級"Medium"

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z發布TCFA，路徑與94P差不多，趨向斐濟一帶。

WTPS23 PGTW 312300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3S 161.6E TO 9.2S 165.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 161.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9S 161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 161.8E, APPROXIMATELY
115 NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311412Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 98P IS
LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF MODERATE AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
25 KTS), WHICH IS OFFSET BY RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM A POINT SOURCE
ALOFT. A 311029Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH SWATHS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CURRENT POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE WITH AN EASTERN TRAJECTORY FOR THE FIRST 24-48
HOURS, THEN TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AFTERWARD. MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR 98P AS A DISCRETE SYSTEM, THEN A POSSIBLE
MERGER WITH THE CURRENT INVEST 94P TO ITS EAST AS BOTH SYSTEMS TURN
SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012300Z.
//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

FMS 編號熱帶擾動04F。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F CENTRE 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.0S 162.5E
AT 312100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPEHRAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND
REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 06
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS
MOVING IN TO A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH FURTHER DEEPENING.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

霧峰追風者

FMS 升格熱帶低壓並開始發報，巔峰上望澳式C2。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 010324 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 163.8E AT
010000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.25 WRAP
YIELDS DT=1.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 9.3S 167.6E MOV E AT 19 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 9.7S 171.1E MOV E AT 18 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 10.2S 174.7E MOV E AT 18 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 11.5S 175.9E MOV ESE AT 11 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY OF TD04F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
010800UTC.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z率先升格熱帶氣旋09P，逐漸南下趨向斐濟。

TPPS10 PGTW 021828
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (N OF FIJI)
B. 02/1800Z
C. 11.20S
D. 177.10E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
VEERKAMP
SH, 09, 2019010218,   , BEST,   0, 111S, 1773E,  35,  996, TS,  34, NEQ,  160,   55,   70,  145, 1001,  200,  60,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,       NINE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, shB82019 to sh092019,

霧峰追風者

FMS 命名"Mona"，巔峰上望澳式C2。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 022240 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 177.3E AT
022100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YIEDS DT=3.0. PT
AND MT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 030900 UTC 12.6S 177.2E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 032100 UTC 13.1S 176.4E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 040900 UTC 13.3S 176.3E SLOW MOV S WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 042100 UTC 14.3S 176.8E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 020200UTC.

霧峰追風者

FMS 強度升二級熱帶氣旋，將影響斐濟。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 040219 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MONA CATEGORY 2 CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
177.3E AT 040000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. MONA MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO
500HPA. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.70 WRAP YIEDS DT=3.5. PT=3.0 AND
MT=3.5 AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC 15.0S 177.2E MOV SSE AT 02 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC 15.6S 177.7E MOV SE AT 04 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 16.4S 178.6E MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 17.3S 179.4E MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON MONA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
040800 UTC.