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94S

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2019-2-17 08:33 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-2-20 07:54 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :94 S
擾動編號日期:2019 02 17 07
撤編日期  :2019 02 00 00
94S.INVEST.15kts-996mb-22.2S-31.1E

20190216.2330.msg-4.ir.94S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.22.2S.31.1E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-17 22:28 | 顯示全部樓層
Suspect area over the southern Africa:

The area of low/mid level vorticity monitored for several days over Africa is moving above Mozambique today, and is forecast to reach the coastline tomorrow morning as a narrow trough. Then, thanks to good environmental conditions (excellent lower convergence and good upper divergence ahead of the upper trough), a closed low level circulation should build over the central Channel and start a deepening phase. Numerical guidance are in a good agreement with this scenario, diverging mostly on the quickness of the circulation building. Deterministic GFS is notably slower on the system movement but often wrongly during the last days. At longer range, the intensification potential could be limited by the presence of a north-westerly upper constraint and a dry air mass in the surroundings. The vertical wind shear impact will mostly depend on the precise location against the upper trough. By the end of the south-easterly track is likely to bring the system closer to the south-western malagasy coastline.

Within the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm is moderate onMonday over the southern Mozambique Channel and becomes high from Tuesday.
cyclogenese.png

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老農民版夜神月|2019-2-18 07:15 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-2-18 07:48 編輯

JTWC1715Z: Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8S
34.6E, APPROXIMATELY 333 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF WEAK, BROAD LOW LEVEL
TURNING OVERLAND IN EASTERN MOZAMBIQUE. A 171443Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE
INDICATES THERE IS DISORGANIZED, SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY. 94S IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KTS) AND WEAK DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKER TOWARDS THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, 94S WILL ENCOUNTER LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10
KTS) AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BUT VARY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF ITS EMERGENCE OVER WATER AND
THE STRENGTH OF ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE SPECTRUM OF INTENSITY VARIES FROM
GFS HAVING BORDERLINE DEVELOPMENT TO ECMWF INDICATING 94S WILL REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

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jrchang5|2019-2-20 03:11 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC已於19/18Z取消評級。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.8S 35.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

20190219.1800.msg-4.ir.94S.INVEST.20kts.1000mb.22.9S.42.1E.100pc.jpg



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