老農民版夜神月

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：19 U ( 21 S )
名稱：Veronica

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 03 月 18 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 03 月 20 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 03 月 20 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 03 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
澳洲氣象局 ( BoM )：105 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：125 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：938 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95S INVEST 190318 0000 12.0S 122.0E SHEM 15 0


以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

BoM編號19U

A monsoon trough persists to the north of Australia. A new tropical low (19U) is forecast to develop in the trough well to the north of the Western Australian coast on Monday. While there is still some uncertainty in the system's possible movement and development, the risk of a tropical cyclone developing in the region increases during next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low
Wednesday:Moderate

jrchang5

JTWC 18/13Z評級Medium。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6S 122.8E, APPROXIMATELY 266 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 181033Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FRAGMENTARY, FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20KTS),
VERY WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST AS IT CONSOLIDATES
FURTHER, POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
AROUND 210000Z. THERE IS SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING, AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE TURN TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS
LEARMONTH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

雖然還在最初始的環流發展階段,但EC與GFS無論主觀數值或系集皆十分看好95S在接下來幾天將有所發展

老農民版夜神月

JTWC在1903Z報中對19U(95S)發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1S 121.3E TO 16.0S 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 121.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY
231 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190105Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 181359Z ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM
THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 18-30
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.
//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

BoM 開始發報，有機會在36H後命名，逐漸增強中。

IDW23100
40:2:2:24:14S121E400:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 0653UTC 19 MARCH 2019

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal three south (14.3S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal seven east (120.7E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 5 knots
Maximum winds   : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1001 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 36 hours.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 0600 UTC 20
March.

From 0000 UTC 20 March winds above 34 knots within 100 nautical miles in SE
quadrant
  and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 19 March: Within 70 nautical miles of 14.7 south 119.5 east
                        Central pressure 1001 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 20 March: Within 90 nautical miles of 15.1 south 118.2 east
                        Central pressure 998 hPa.
                        Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 19 March 2019.

WEATHER PERTH

老農民版夜神月

1918Z,命名VERONICA

FKAU03 ADRM 191834
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20190319/1800Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: VERONICA
ADVISORY NR: 2019/2
OBS PSN: 19/1800Z S1448 E11948
CB: WI 80NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: WSW 05KT
C: 996HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 20/0000 S1506 E11906
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 20/0600 S1524 E11830
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 20/1200 S1536 E11754
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 20/1800 S1548 E11724
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20190320/0100Z

同時JTWC分析的T值也來到2.5,有機會升格21S

TPXS10 PGTW 191838

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (NW OF AUSTRALIA)

B. 19/1800Z

C. 14.95S

D. 119.75E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/21HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN

老農民版夜神月

BoM與JTWC繼20P之後再次同時升格

BoM

JTWC