開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

91C 逐漸北上 轉化溫氣

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-9-17 09:56 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :91 C
擾動編號日期:2019 09 17 09
撤編日期  :2019 09 20 07
91C.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-15.3N-163.3W

20190917.0130.goes-17.ir.91C.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.15.3N.163.3W.100pc.jpg

  CPHC:10%  
1. An area of low pressure with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms is about 550 miles south-southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii. Some subsequent development of this system is
possible while it moves northwestward over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_cpac_2d1.png

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

查看全部評分

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1493 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-9-18 08:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-9-18 08:17 編輯

JTWC17/2200Z發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N 164.1W TO 22.6N 166.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171712Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 163.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5N 163.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTHWEST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAWAII. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172007Z 89GHZ METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION TAKING ON MARGINAL ROTATION
ABOVE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH LOW-MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE LLC, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INVEST 91C TRACKING
NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182200Z.
//
NNNN

cp9119.gif 91C_172200sair.jpg
GOES00002019261EsuLTN.jpg

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-9-18 09:19 | 顯示全部樓層
CPHC 展望提升至50%。
1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an elongated area of
low pressure around 450 miles southwest of Honolulu. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development over the next 24 hours as the system moves toward the
northwest. By late Wednesday or Thursday, chances for development
drop off significantly as the low interacts with another disturbance
approaching from the west. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
two_cpac_2d1 (2).png
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-9-19 12:08 | 顯示全部樓層
展望降低至20%,逐漸北上轉化溫氣。
1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low
pressure around 300 miles west of Kauai. Environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for some development through tonight
as the system moves toward the north-northwest. Conditions are
expected to become even less conducive into Thursday as the low
interacts with another disturbance just to its west. As these
disturbances combine, locally gusty winds and heavy rain are
expected for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
two_cpac_2d1 (3).png
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

霧峰追風者

    主題

    帖子

    208萬

    積分

    16級[四級颶風]

    Rank: 16Rank: 16Rank: 16Rank: 16

16級[四級颶風]

發訊息

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表