老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格26S

26S TWENTYSIX 210404 1200 10.4S 123.2E SHEM 35 999

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BoM升格TS, 因象限未達標而還沒有命名, 並在報文中提到因定位較接近印尼, 會留意BMKG會否對其升格

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1309 UTC 04/04/2021
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.5S
Longitude: 123.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [280 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  04/1800: 10.6S 122.8E:     045 [085]:  040  [075]:  992
+12:  05/0000: 10.8S 122.4E:     055 [100]:  045  [085]:  992
+18:  05/0600: 11.1S 121.9E:     060 [110]:  045  [085]:  988
+24:  05/1200: 11.4S 121.2E:     065 [120]:  050  [095]:  986
+36:  06/0000: 12.1S 119.5E:     075 [140]:  060  [110]:  981
+48:  06/1200: 13.1S 117.9E:     100 [185]:  065  [120]:  975
+60:  07/0000: 14.4S 116.2E:     125 [230]:  075  [140]:  968
+72:  07/1200: 16.1S 114.2E:     155 [285]:  080  [150]:  964
+96:  08/1200: 18.1S 111.2E:     220 [405]:  085  [155]:  958
+120: 09/1200: 19.9S 109.8E:     295 [545]:  080  [150]:  963
REMARKS:
The system remains slow moving near the Indonesian island of Rote. Recent
microwave imagery [SSMIS at 0838 UTC] and IR show enhanced convective banding.
Dvorak FT/CI at 3.0 based on 0.7 wrap using curved band pattern and developing
trend.

However, surface winds are likely affected by land influence [mountainous
islands of Rote and Timor] and as the low is in Indonesia's area of
responsibility it is their decision to name the system. Upcoming scatterometer
passes should assist in resolving the wind circulation.
Gales are likely in exposed areas to the south of the cente.

Aside from land influences, the environment is generally favourable for further
development with deep moisture, low vertical wind shear under the axis of an
upper ridge and good outflow in northern sectors.

The system is expected to track to the southwest into the Savu Sea and
intensification is expected with unimpeded inflow once over open waters.

Steady southwest movement is forecast from Monday as the mid-level ridge
strengthens to the south, taking the system away from the Indonesian
archipelago. Further intensification is likely, despite a slight increase in
shear with the cyclone possibly reaching category 3 intensity over open waters
north of WA is possible by Tuesday evening or on Wednesday.

Interaction with another tropical system to the west makes the extended forecast
uncertain, and the various track scenarios include remaining offshore in the
Indian Ocean to an impact to the far west Pilbara coast or a later impact on the
west coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 04/1930 UTC.

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JTWC初報上望C2, 85節

老農民版夜神月

BMKG升格澳式C1,命名Seroja

老農民版夜神月

JTWC提高上望至MH,100KT

dom

BoM升格澳式C2

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0705 UTC 05/04/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Seroja
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.8S
Longitude: 121.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [253 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  05/1200: 11.1S 121.2E:     035 [065]:  050  [095]:  986
+12:  05/1800: 11.4S 120.5E:     050 [095]:  055  [100]:  983
+18:  06/0000: 11.8S 119.7E:     065 [120]:  055  [100]:  981
+24:  06/0600: 12.3S 118.8E:     080 [145]:  060  [110]:  978
+36:  06/1800: 13.4S 117.2E:     105 [195]:  070  [130]:  972
+48:  07/0600: 14.9S 115.4E:     125 [235]:  070  [130]:  966
+60:  07/1800: 16.4S 113.5E:     155 [285]:  080  [150]:  962
+72:  08/0600: 17.4S 112.0E:     185 [340]:  085  [155]:  959
+96:  09/0600: 19.1S 110.3E:     230 [425]:  080  [150]:  960
+120: 10/0600: 21.6S 109.4E:     400 [750]:  065  [120]:  972
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Seroja has been slowly moving to the west-southwest near the
Indonesian island of Sawu. Visible satellite imagery briefly showed an exposed
low-level centre during the day which has given high confidence in analysis
positions during the day. ASCAT imagery from 0130UTC showed gales extending to
approximately 70nm in southern and northeastern quadrants.

Dvorak FT/CI at 3.5 based on MET/PAT and curved band VIS analysis. ADT is
assessing CI of 3.2 though recent raw values have been lower. SATCON estimates
have persisted near 52 knots, though there has been a lack of microwave imagery
through the day.

CIMSS wind shear analysis at 03UTC indicates approximately 15-20 knots of east
to southeasterly shear however conditions are expected to remain favourable as
it moves to the south where shear is analysed to be lower. There is strong upper
divergence over the system and abundant moisture. As a result of favourable
conditions, further intensification of the cyclone is expected, particularly
once it moves away from the Indonesian islands.

Steady southwest movement is forecast from today as the mid-level ridge
strengthens to the south, taking the system away from the Indonesian
archipelago. Further intensification is likely, despite a slight increase in
shear with the cyclone possibly reaching category 3 intensity over open waters
north of WA by Tuesday evening or on Wednesday. A slight risk of rapid
intensification over the next 24 hours could see it reach category 3 from as
early as Tuesday morning.

Interaction with another tropical system to the west results in a high level of
uncertainty for the extended forecast. A range of scenarios exist including
Seroja remaining offshore in the Indian Ocean, impacts to the far west Pilbara
coast or a later impact on the central west coast of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1330 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

最新底層及風場掃描圖

老農民版夜神月

JTWC新報持續上望MH,105KT