簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
|
老農民版夜神月|2021-4-6 06:48
|
顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-4-6 07:06 編輯
JTWC新報預測系統將於+48H達到顛峰後，因遭到26S影響而迅速減弱直至被其吸收
WTXS32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 105.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 105.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.1S 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.0S 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.7S 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.3S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.1S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.9S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 105.6E.
05APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 609 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
ELONGATED AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051808Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF AN ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE BURST, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AND IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
PULSES OF OUTFLOW FROM TC 26S IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS BEEN
REVISED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON THE LIKELY BINARY INTERACTION
SCENARIO WITH THE LARGER, MORE DOMINANT TC 26S. TC 27S IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48,
TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH WITHIN 450NM OF TC 26S, WHICH
WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY, TC WILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK
OPTIMISTICALLY AT 55 KNOTS BY TAU 48 BUT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
AFTER TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
TC 26S. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO
THE COMPLEX SCENARIO / BINARY INTERACTION. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH EGRI, AFUI, AVNI AND UEMI WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
|
|
