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01A.Tauktae 登陸印度

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-12 08:43 | 顯示全部樓層
ASCAT半夜時三張不同時間段的風場
20210511.1533.mta.ASCAT.wind.92A.INVEST.25kts-1003mb.98N.625E.25km.noqc.jpeg 20210511.1648.mtb.ASCAT.wind.92A.INVEST.25kts-1003mb.98N.625E.25km.noqc.jpeg
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簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-13 20:19 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 131200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 70.5E TO 13.1N 73.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 71.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530
NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND A 130826Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
141200Z.//
NNNN
io9221.gif 92A_131200sair.jpg
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-13 21:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC12Z分析T1.5,定強提升至30節
92A INVEST 210513 1200 10.0N 71.9E IO 30 1000
TPIO10 PGTW 131228

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92A (MUMBAI)

B. 13/1200Z

C. 10.17N

D. 71.41E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T1.5/1.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN
bd9b7b899e510fb357a05f26ce33c895d0430c9f.jpg.png

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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-14 15:15 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD編號ARB01,上望VSCS
FTRACK1403.png
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簽到天數: 483 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-5-14 15:36 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z升格01A
01A.INVEST.35kts.998mb.11.6N.72.1E.
ED005DD6-442C-4FF2-9136-BA15A141B9AA.jpeg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-14 17:08 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC首報上望110KT
io012021.20210514085550.gif
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簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-15 05:55 | 顯示全部樓層
EC12Z系集,預測01A將緊貼著印度西海岸北上
01A.png nio (1).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-5-15 05:59 | 顯示全部樓層
GFS的預測則較EC偏西些,離印度西海岸有一段距離,預報強度也明顯地又較EC高許多
01A_gefs_latest.png 01A_tracks_latest.png

GFS12Z報
022720m7ii1c8d9xf1nikk.png
EC12Z報
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_india_4.png
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