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2105 薔琵 掠過關島近海北上 遠洋轉化溫氣

簽到天數: 1492 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-20 22:24 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN22 PGTW 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 149.3E TO 13.1N 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 153.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION.
A PARTIAL 200252Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SHARP EASTERLY
WAVE OR A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE GRADIENT FLOW. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211300Z.
//
NNNN
abpwsair (8).jpg wp9421.gif
94W_201300sair.jpg
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簽到天數: 1492 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-21 05:10 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-21 05:23 編輯

JTWC18Z將定強調升至25節,但依舊定性為擾動,並未升格
WP, 94, 2021062018,   , BEST,   0, 109N, 1482E,  25, 1005, DB,

94W_b1.png 94W_b13ca.png
94W_b13rbtop.png
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簽到天數: 1492 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-21 05:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA則仍尚未判定為LPA或TD,僅在預測途中預測了+48H內將成為LPA(低壓帶)
20210620204030_0_Z__C_010000_20210620180000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png 20210620190700_0_Z__C_010000_20210620120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas24_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
20210620201330_0_Z__C_010000_20210620120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_JCP600x512_JRcolor.png
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簽到天數: 1492 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-21 05:14 | 顯示全部樓層
EC系集有反應的成員仍多,但支持發展的依舊較少
wpac (5).png eastasia (4).png
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簽到天數: 1492 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-6-21 05:24 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC21Z分析維持T1.5,照理來說已經達到JTWC以往可能的升格標準
就看00ZJTWC怎麼繼續認定這個定強已經25節的系統了
TPPN10 PGTW 202109

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 20/2050Z

C. 11.13N

D. 148.74E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   20/1827Z  11.43N  148.48E  SSMS


   YOUNG

20210620.1832.f18.91pct91h91v.94W.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.10.4N.149E.100pc.jpg 20210620.1832.f18.91h.94W.INVEST.20kts.1008mb.10.4N.149E.100pc.jpg
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簽到天數: 2838 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2021-6-21 10:18 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格06W,巔峰上望45節。
wp0621.gif

94W_b1.gif
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簽到天數: 1964 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2021-6-21 10:27 | 顯示全部樓層
wpac.png
A.png B.png
北側被副高壓制環流十分迷你~
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-6-21 11:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA00Z升格TD。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 12N 148E WNW SLOWLY.
5C5D6189-0CC9-45CA-9D55-E313FBAFBA44.png
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