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05E.Enrique 東太首颶

簽到天數: 1996 天

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2021-6-23 08:59 | 顯示全部樓層
  一級颶風  
編號:05 E
名稱:Enrique
20210627.1330.goes-17.vis.2km.05E.ENRIQUE.80kts.977mb.17.9N.105.9W.pc.jpg
  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2021 06 23 08
命名日期  :2021 06 25 17
撤編日期  :2021 07 02 03
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :80  kt (
Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓 :975 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

95E.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.10N.92.8W
20210623.0030.goes-17.ir.95E.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.10N.92.8W.100pc.jpg

  NHC:40%  
1. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
extending several hundred miles south of the coasts of Guatemala,
El Salvador, and southern Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is expected to form late this week or this weekend while moving
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.  This system is expected to be
near the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico by this weekend,
and interests in those areas should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

two_pac_2d1.png 以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 479 天

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dom|2021-6-23 19:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 dom 於 2021-6-23 19:35 編輯

NHC展望提升至High
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 23 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorm are showing signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of
days as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.  
This system is expected to be near the coast of southern or
southwestern Mexico by this weekend, and interests in those areas
should monitor its progress for development, and the threat of heavy
rainfall and flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
EA6A2E65-4B75-40C0-BAE4-7F9D45723D23.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-23 22:46 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-24 02:56 編輯

JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 94.4W TO 14.8N 100.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.8N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VACINITY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD LINES
THAT WRAP INTO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. ANALYSIS OF THE
SYSTEM STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE 37GHZ AND 91GHZ CHANNELS OF A
231105Z SSMIS PASS REVEAL A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
POSSIBLE FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND A POINT
SOURCE SITUATED OVER HEAD THAT IS SUPPORTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95E WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, HOWEVER SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS INTENSIFIATION TREND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241430Z.
//
NNNN

ep9521.gif 95E_231330sair.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-24 06:08 | 顯示全部樓層
可能,有望成為今年東太第一個颶風 95E_gefs_latest.png epac (1).png
95E_intensity_latest.png 95E_tracks_latest.png
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dom|2021-6-25 11:14 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至90%
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jun 24 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  However, the low's surface
circulation still appears broad without a well-defined center.  
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form in a
day or so while moving slowly west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.  
This system is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico
through early next week, and interests there should monitor its
potential for development, as well as the threat of heavy rainfall
and flooding.  For additional information on this system, please
refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Berg
5AD4A26B-67F4-45CB-B379-209737243B3E.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-25 15:57 | 顯示全部樓層
RAMMB升格05E
EP052021 - Tropical Storm INVEST


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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-25 17:05 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-25 21:13 編輯

NHC首報命名ENRIQUE.上望C1,75節
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250843
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Scatterometer data near 04Z indicated that the wind circulation
of the low pressure area located south of southwestern Mexico had
become better defined, although the west quadrant was a bit weak to
to a trough extending from the low to a second low near 14N 109W.  
Since that time, the associated convective banding has become better
organized, indicating that development has continued.  All three
ASCATs showed 35 kt winds to the southeast of the center, so
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Enrique.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/8.  Enrique is
currently to the south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  The
global models forecast the ridge to weaken as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops over the southwestern United States during the next
few days.  The track guidance generally responds to this by
forecasting Enrique to slow its forward motion and turn more
northwestward.  After 96 h, the ridge strengthens slightly, which
should cause the tropical cyclone to again move west-northwestward.
The track guidance has some spread, with the GFS, Canadian, and
HMON models on the right side of the guidance envelope closer to
the coast of Mexico, and the UKMET model farther out to sea on the
left side.   The official forecast track lies near and is a little
slower than the various consensus models.

The cyclone is currently in an area of moderate northeasterly
vertical wind shear, and light to moderate shear conditions are
expected during the next 60 h or so while Enrique is over warm
water in a moist environment.  Thus, Enrique is expected to
strengthen and this part of the official forecast, which is in the
weaker portion of the intensity guidance, could be conservative.  
After about 60 h, increased shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause Enrique to
weaken, and this part of the official forecast is near the
intensity consensus.

While the center of Enrique is forecast to stay offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, tropical-storm force winds might
affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
few days.  A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of
that area later today.  In addition, outer rainbands are expected
to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 15.0N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 15.3N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 15.9N 104.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 16.3N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 16.9N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  27/1800Z 17.6N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 18.2N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  29/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

084445_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ep0521.gif
05E_250600sair.jpg GOES125020211763dO6ij.jpg 95E_intensity_latest (1).png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-26 06:12 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC21Z報上望二級颶風,85KT
941
WTPZ45 KNHC 252056
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite
imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent
banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon,
a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed
over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense
overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to
assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer
wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt
winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval
of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt,
while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique
(ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at
T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat
lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45
kt.  

Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of
the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The
track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with
a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead
to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in
its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to
the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the
cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while
becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has
shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track
forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance
consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models.

Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to
intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a
favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level
humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest
SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt
wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its
climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just
below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours.
After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler
upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to
begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a
little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance
of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo
Corrientes.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
205749_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ep0521 (2).gif
06W_251800sair.jpg LATEST (18).jpg
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