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05E.Enrique 東太首颶

簽到天數: 482 天

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dom|2021-6-26 16:56 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC09Z升格C1
666
WTPZ45 KNHC 260855
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021

The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better
organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central
dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops
colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall.  Satellite
intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt
from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS
ADT.  The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on
the latter estimate.  Although the cyclone continues to intensify,
cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear
is occurring.

The initial motion is 290/7.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the
storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should
cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h.
After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing
the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again.  The
track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last
advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show
a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the
coast of Mexico.  The new forecast track is also shifted a little to
the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various
consensus models.  Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track
to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of
the southwestern coast of Mexico later today.

Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical
wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next
24 to 36 hours.  Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening
is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the
SHIPS model.  The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity
guidance.  After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady
weakening.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of
southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-27 23:23 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC上望+12H達C2
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 271447
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with
some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting
that an eye is attempting to form.  The northern portion of the core
appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to
down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of
Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact,
and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB
indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this
advisory.

Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the
past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase
to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track
reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is
forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico.
This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or
so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late
Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward
as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow.
The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is
close to the TVCE consensus.

Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for
strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast
to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due
to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters,
upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would
induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By
Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler
waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which
will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows
Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the
southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short
time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to
a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is
very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance
through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the
intensity consensus after 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of
days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across
portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday.  Although the
core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any
deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the
wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.  Therefore, a Hurricane Watch
remains in effect for a portion of that area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Stewart
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-28 05:40 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC不再認為能夠增強到C2此刻有可能便已是巔峰
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 272057
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery
since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature
has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and
structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest
Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity
remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses
helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed
that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area
of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest
core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore.

Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today.
However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward
component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07
kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently
moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico.
A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone
tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This
northwestward motion should then continue until the system
dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track
and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique
are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through
tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest
winds to the coast by late tonight.  As a result, the government of
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.  In about 72 h, the center of the
system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for
strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the
official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur
through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin
moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the
fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling
should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a
gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the
cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into
a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the
pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a
remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether
or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the
southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a
Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally
become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous
one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the
corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern
coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a
Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force
winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern
Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
24H  28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-28 23:15 | 顯示全部樓層
即將開始快速減弱
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 281450
TCDEP5

Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as
the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air
entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher
terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the
northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's
inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave
pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77
kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was
lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates.

Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the
left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level
ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading.
The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though
there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models.
The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the
previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly
ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as
the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening
rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be
a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula.
However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because
Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature
gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in
faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow
Enrique to maintain its intensity longer.

Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along
southern part of the Baja California Peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days,
which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the
southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is
in effect for a portion of that area.  Tropical-storm-force winds
are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico
within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area today.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-29 06:11 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-29 08:33 編輯

NHC降格TS
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 282055
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021

This afternoon Enrique's satellite structure has rapidly
deteriorated, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed to the
north of a shrinking region of deep convection. Both TAFB and SAB
came in with T4.0/65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates this afternoon,
however the data T-numbers, which are less constrained than the
Current Intensity numbers, were lower. The latest objective UW-CIMSS
ADT estimates has also been rapidly dropping with the current value
at T3.0/45 kt.  Since the satellite structure has continued to
degrade, Enrique has been downgraded to a tropical storm with a 60
kt intensity.

Enrique has continued to turn leftward through the course of the
day, with the estimated motion now at 315/5 kt. Over the next few
days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to maintain the
storm on a slow northwest heading. However, there has been a subtle
left and fast shift in the guidance this afternoon. The latest NHC
track forecast has shifted a bit west and is a bit faster in
accordance with the consensus aids, but is not as far west or quick
as the latest TVCE consensus.

Dry-air entrainment has done a number to the inner core of Enrique
today. As the storm continues to move northwestward towards lower
oceanic heat content and a drier and more stable environment,
weakening is expected to continue. However, the storm is still
forecasted to be a tropical storm as it approaches the southern tip
of Baja California where tropical storm watches remain in effect. By
72 h the low-level circulation could be further disrupted by the
terrain of Baja California and the latest NHC forecast expects
Enrique to degenerate into a remnant low by that time.

Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains
across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple days,
which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

2. The core of Enrique is moving away from southwestern coast of
Mexico this afternoon.  Tropical-storm-force winds could still
occur over portions of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas
through tonight.

3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
60H  01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-30 06:09 | 顯示全部樓層
即將登陸墨西哥下加利福尼亞半島
987
WTPZ45 KNHC 292047
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near
its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable
environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and
low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the
system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why
Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the
GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of
convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm
sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of
California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone
for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by
several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle.

The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general
motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves
into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California
Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance
envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective
organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and
it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja
California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over
land.

Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of
the Baja California Peninsula.


Key Messages:

1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a
portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during
the next couple days.  This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico
will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H  01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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老農民版夜神月|2021-7-1 01:49 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC降格TD
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 301439
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Enrique Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

After a brief burst of convection near its center overnight, the
satellite presentation of Enrique has degraded this morning.
Infrared cloud top temperatures have rapidly warmed near the
estimated center position, and the only active convection at this
time is occurring over the Baja California Peninsula. Overnight
satellite-derived wind data supported winds of 25 to 30 kt in the
northeast quadrant of the cyclone, and satellite trends suggest
Enrique has weakened since then. Additionally, TAFB gave the system
a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification. Therefore, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt this morning, which downgrades Enrique
to a tropical depression.

Enrique is currently moving northwestward, although it is expected
to turn slightly more west-northwestward later today between a weak
ridge to its northeast and a low- to mid-level low pressure system
well offshore. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
official NHC forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus.  
Increasing vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air in the
surrounding environment, as well as increasing land interaction,
should support continued weakening during the next day or so. As
expected, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF do not
indicate much potential for additional convective development before
the system moves inland tonight. Therefore, Enrique is forecast to
become a remnant low over Baja California Sur by Thursday and
dissipate shortly thereafter.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Enrique are possible across southern
portions of Baja California Sur.  This will pose a threat of flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western
coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the
next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 24.6N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
24H  01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven

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老農民版夜神月|2021-7-1 05:26 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC降格殘餘低氣壓,並發布最終報
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 302036
TCDEP5

Remnants Of Enrique Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
300 PM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021

Enrique has been devoid of deep, organized convection for over 12
hours today. In addition, visible satellite imagery and earlier
passive microwave data suggested that the original center has been
absorbed by a broad trough of low pressure centered farther
southeast near the coast of Baja California Sur. Therefore, this
will be the final NHC advisory on the remnants of Enrique. The
remnant trough is expected to move west-northwestward over Baja
California Sur tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western
coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the
next day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 24.5N 110.3W   20 KT  25 MPH
12H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown
203736_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png ep0521 (10).gif
20211812030_GOES17-ABI-FL-GEOCOLOR-EP052021-1000x1000.jpg
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