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2106 烟花 前期龜速北上 暴風圈掃過北部近海 登陸浙江

簽到天數: 1490 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2021-7-14 09:06 | 顯示全部樓層
  中度颱風  
編號:2106 ( 09 W )
名稱: 烟花 ( In-Fa )
2106.jpg

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        :2021 07 14 08
JMA升格熱低日期:2021 07 16 12
CWB編號日期       :2021 07 16 20
命名日期          :2021 07 18 02
停編日期          :2021 07 30 08
登陸地點       :中國 浙江省 舟山市
                    浙江省 平湖市
颱風警報總計     :海上警報 22

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB):43 m/s ( 14 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) :40 m/s ( 85 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):95 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓945 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑  : 200 公里
十級風半徑  : 70 公里

  過去路徑圖  
2106_JTWC.jpg

  擾動編號資料  
98W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.16N.138E

20210714.0030.himawari-8.vis.98W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.16N.138E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 3水氣能量 +37 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
leu8000 + 12 好讚的分析!
空知南幌 + 10 讚一個!
周子堯@FB + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-7-14 13:42 | 顯示全部樓層
Medium。
   (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.5N 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 484 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 140343Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING WITH ASSOCIATED AREAS
OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GFS AND NAVGEM HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THIS LOCATION FOR THE PAST FOUR
MODEL RUNS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
98W WILL TRACK POLEWARD AS IT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATES AND INTENSIFIES
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH DECREASING VWS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS
DUE TO A FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN JAPAN
AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
596F73F9-AA56-41A0-B464-8747C848BE01.jpeg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-7-14 22:26 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-7-14 23:03 編輯

JMA評為LPA
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.

20210714140101_0_Z__C_010000_20210714120000_MET_CHT_JCIspas_JCP600x581_JRcolor_T.png 98W_gefs_latest.png 98W_tracks_latest.png wpac (19).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2021-7-15 19:28 | 顯示全部樓層

ec_ens.png
最新EC系集,依然發散

點評

如果真的發生 侵台可能性就上升很多了 但還有五天 變數還是很大 所以EC系集還是很發散  發表於 2021-7-16 00:56
GFS 15 12Z這報 出了一個變數 98W東側生成另一個系統 擋住副高給的北向量 藉由北側微弱高壓和季風環流圈導引西行 甚至西南西走  發表於 2021-7-16 00:55
雖然現在說什麼都太早,但個人覺得應該是去韓國不然就是長江口,高壓太北了........  發表於 2021-7-15 21:13
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

正宜27|2021-7-16 04:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 正宜27 於 2021-7-16 04:22 編輯

jma 預測明晚將增強為T.D 20210715190931_0_Z__C_010000_20210715120000_MET_CHT_JCIfsas48_Rjp_JCP600x581_JRc.png    gfs最新預測將以強颱強度從北部近海通過
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ea_fh6-204.gif
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-7-16 05:33 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 152030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4N 132.2E TO 21.5N 131.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 137.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
593 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), A 151639Z AMSR2 36GHZ, AND AN
ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE
ZONE ON THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
DESPITE THE ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE ZONE, 98W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, THE PATTERN IS COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE STEERING FORCES;
THE FAVORABLE POLEWARD POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS A
STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL ENHANCE CONSOLIDATION. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A STRONG DISPARITY AMONGST THE NUMERICAL MODELS OVER THE TRACK
AND INTENSIFICATION TIMELINE. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GFS HAS 98W
INTENSIFYING WITHIN 18-36 HOURS AND TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
HIGHER SPEED OF ADVANCE TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, WHILE GLOBAL AND
ENSEMBLE ECMWF HAVE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION PATTERN WITH A SLOWER
SPEED OF ADVANCE TO KYUSHU, JAPAN. CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL AT HANDLING THE
COMPLEXITIES OF 98W OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162030Z.
//
NNNN
wp9821.gif 98W_152030sair.jpg 98W_gefs_latest (1).png

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-7-16 09:56 | 顯示全部樓層
ECMWF 18Z系集
wpac (28).png eastasia (21).png
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dom|2021-7-16 14:00 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升格TD
A554CD6B-E786-4BFF-8A75-1966150C3DD4.png
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