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90C(98E) 一度發布TCFA 無緣升格 進入中太結束一生

簽到天數: 1490 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

2021-7-23 03:11 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :98 E
擾動編號日期 :2021 07 23 03
撤編日期        :2021 07
27 02
98E.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.11N.120W

20210722.1840.goes-16.ir.98E.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.11N.120W.100pc.jpg

NHC:10%
1. An area of disturbed weather located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
an large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are generally favorable for some slow
development of this system over the weekend into early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_pac_2d0 (12).png two_pac_2d1 (18).png
two_pac_5d1 (18).png

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
周子堯@FB + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1490 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-7-24 02:38 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升至Medium,40%
1. An area of disturbed weather located about 1200 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are generally conducive for additional development, and
this system could become a tropical depression this weekend or early
next week before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 10-15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

two_pac_2d0 (13).png two_pac_2d1 (19).png
two_pac_5d1 (19).png 98E_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-7-25 04:01 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望提升到50%
1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1400 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity has become a bit better organized, but the system currently
lacks a well-defined low-level circulation.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development,
and this system could become a tropical depression later this
weekend or early next week before reaching cooler waters while
moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-7-25 09:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 250100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1N 129.8W TO 13.8N 136.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 130.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
131.2N 130.3W, APPROXIMATELY 1650 NM EAST-SOUTH EAST OF HONOLULU,
HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 242227Z AMSR2
PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH CONSOLIDATING AND DEEPENING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES 98E IS LOCATED IN AN AREA  
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10KTS)
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES(29-30 C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260100Z.
//
NNNN
ep9821.gif 98E_250100sair.jpg
two_cpac_2d1.png 98E_gefs_latest (1).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

king111807|2021-7-25 14:57 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC提升展望至70%,high
1. A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands continues to show signs of organization.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and the system could become a tropical depression later
this weekend or early next week before reaching cooler waters while
moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_pac_2d1.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-7-26 14:14 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC展望略降至60%,Medium
1. A well-defined low pressure system located about 1100 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to move westward at
about 15 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,
and environmental conditions are gradually becoming less conducive
for additional development to occur.  However, any increase in the
organization of the shower activity would result in the formation of
a tropical depression on Monday. The low is forecast to move into
the Central Pacific basin by late Monday morning, and by Tuesday
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_cpac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1 (5).png
two_cpac_5d1.png 98E_gefs_latest.png
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dom|2021-7-26 21:00 | 顯示全部樓層
系統進入中太,編號90C。
ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Mon Jul 26 2021

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, has been  
monitoring an elongated area of low pressure located more than 1000
miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, as it continues to move
westward at about 15 mph. The feature is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are gradually
becoming less conducive for development of a tropical depression.
By Tuesday, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for any
further development. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be
issuing all further information on this system as it is now
entering the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5
days.

Forecaster Kinel
two_cpac_2d0.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-7-27 02:18 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-7-27 02:21 編輯

JTWC取消TCFA
WTPN21 PHNC 261430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260051Z JUL 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 260100)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 260100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.5W IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.0W, APPROXIMATELY 1009 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO, HAWAII. THE FEATURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WITHIN 48 HOURS,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
//
NNNN

224007bszxgw0xwjbbbvu6.gif

CPHC展望亦持續降至30%,Low
1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than 1000
miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, as it continues to move
westward at about 15 mph. The feature is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are gradually
becoming less conducive for development of a tropical depression.
By Tuesday, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for any
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


two_cpac_2d1 (1).png
two_cpac_5d1.png
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