老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：96 L
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 11 月 10 日 08 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 11 月 12 日 08 時
96L.INVEST.60kts.982mb.35.3N.60.2W

NHC：30%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a storm-force non-tropical
low centered about 300 miles northeast of Bermuda have become better
organized since this morning.  As the low moves eastward and then
northeastward during the next couple of days, some additional
development is possible while the system remains over relatively
warm water south of the Gulf Stream.  After that time, the system is
forecast to be absorbed by another non-tropical low.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望提升至Medium,50%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong non-tropical low
centered about 350 miles northeast of Bermuda continue to show signs
of organization.  In addition, recent satellite wind data indicate
that winds of near hurricane force are occurring south of the
center.  This system has not yet acquired enough tropical cyclone
characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm.  However,
additional development is possible during the next day or two, and a
subtropical storm could form during this time.  After that time, the
system is forecast to move over colder water and become absorbed by
another non-tropical low.  Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

老農民版夜神月

"一級溫帶氣旋"96L

96L INVEST 211110 1200 35.9N 56.3W ATL 70 982

老農民版夜神月

FWC-N於昨晚其實有發TCFA

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (96L) //
WTNT21 KNGU 101900
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35.9N 56.3W TO 41.1N 43.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 60 TO 70 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101900Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 56.3W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 60 TO
70 KNOTS. RECENT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE-FORCE NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A LITTLE OVER 500 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE AND A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO
WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 111900Z. //
BT

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望調降至Low,30%

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a storm-force non-tropical
area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of
Bermuda have changed little in organization since last night.
Although there is still a small chance the system could become a
short-lived subtropical storm today, the system is quickly moving
over cooler waters and the likelihood of subtropical development has
decreased. By this weekend, the system is expected to be absorbed by
a larger non-tropical low. Additional information on this system,
including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas
forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望再降至10%,如此看來FWC-N19Z也不可能再續發TCFA了

1. A large and powerful non-tropical area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland is
producing a broad area of showers, gale to near-hurricane-force
winds, and dangerous seas across portions of the north-central
Atlantic. Although the chance for subtropical development continues
to decrease as it moves over much cooler waters, this system is
forecast to intensify into a hurricane-force extratropical low by
tonight. Additional information on this system, including
hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC已不再對其發布展望

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Fri Nov 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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