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24S.Ialy 南印度洋低緯度熱帶風暴

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簽到天數: 3951 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老
2024-5-13 20:50 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號：11-20232024 ( 24 S )
名稱：IALY

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期　：2024 年 05 月 13 日 14 時
JTWC升格日期：2024 年 05 月 16 日 14 時
命名日期　　　：2024 年 05 月 16 日 14 時
撤編日期　　　：2024 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：060 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：060 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：983 百帕

基本資料  
編號　　　　：92 S
擾動編號日期：2024 年 05 月 13 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2024 年 05 月 00 日 00 時
92S INVEST 240513 0600 8.0S 53.9E SHEM 20 1006


20240513.0825.goes-15.vis.m.92S.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.8S.53.9E.pc.jpg





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kingchard2011

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kingchard2011|2024-5-21 00:27 | 顯示全部樓層
此熱帶風暴已存活一段時間
預計未來將逐漸減弱

補上過去颱風報文資料
trajectoire.png
MFR：
  1. WTIO30 FMEE 160651
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  4. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/11/20232024
  5. 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 11
  6. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 0600 UTC:
  7. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 53.0 E
  8. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  9. FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  10. MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
  11. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/6 H
  12. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
  13. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
  14. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  15. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  16. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 315 NW: 165
  17. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  18. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
  19. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  20. 12H: 2024/05/16 18 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  21. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 240 SW: 335 NW: 150
  22. 24H: 2024/05/17 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  23. STORM
  24. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 350 NW: 130
  25. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 95
  26. 36H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  27. STORM
  28. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 350 NW: 120
  29. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  30. 48H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  31. STORM
  32. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 315 NW: 130
  33. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
  34. 60H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 8.4 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  35. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 130
  36. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
  37. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
  38. 72H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 8.0 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  39. 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 295 NW: 130
  40. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 100
  41. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
  42. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  43. 96H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 7.2 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  44. STORM
  45. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 285 NW: 140
  46. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 110
  47. 120H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 5.9 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  48. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 120
  49. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  50. T=CI=1.5

  52. WTIO30 FMEE 161338
  53. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  54. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  55. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20232024
  56. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  57. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1200 UTC:
  58. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.7 E
  59. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  60. FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
  61. MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
  62. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H
  63. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
  64. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  65. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  66. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  67. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
  68. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0
  69. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  70. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  71. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  72. 12H: 2024/05/17 00 UTC: 9.0 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  73. STORM
  74. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
  75. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
  76. 24H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  77. STORM
  78. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
  79. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0
  80. 36H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.8 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  81. STORM
  82. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
  83. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0
  84. 48H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  85. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 100
  86. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
  87. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  88. 60H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  89. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 100
  90. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
  91. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  92. 72H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  93. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 110
  94. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
  95. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  96. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  97. 96H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 8.1 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  98. STORM
  99. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 130
  100. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 75
  101. 120H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  102. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  103. T=CI=2.0+

  105. WTIO30 FMEE 161858
  106. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  107. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  108. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/11/20232024
  109. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  110. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/16 AT 1800 UTC:
  111. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 52.2 E
  112. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  113. FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
  114. MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT
  115. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
  116. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  117. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  118. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  119. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  120. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
  121. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0
  122. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  123. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  124. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  125. 12H: 2024/05/17 06 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  126. STORM
  127. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
  128. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
  129. 24H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  130. STORM
  131. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
  132. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0
  133. 36H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  134. STORM
  135. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 95
  136. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 0
  137. 48H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  138. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 100
  139. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
  140. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  141. 60H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  142. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 100
  143. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
  144. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  145. 72H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 8.5 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  146. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 110
  147. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
  148. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  149. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  150. 96H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  151. STORM
  152. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 120
  153. 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  154. 120H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  155. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  156. T=CI=2.5-


  159. WTIO30 FMEE 170013
  160. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  161. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  162. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20232024
  163. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  164. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 0000 UTC:
  165. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.1 S / 51.9 E
  166. (NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  167. FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
  168. MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
  169. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
  170. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  171. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  172. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
  173. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  174. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 75
  175. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 0
  176. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  177. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  178. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  179. 12H: 2024/05/17 12 UTC: 9.0 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  180. STORM
  181. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 95
  182. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 0
  183. 24H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  184. STORM
  185. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 95
  186. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 0
  187. 36H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 9.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  188. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
  189. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 75
  190. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
  191. 48H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  192. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 100
  193. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
  194. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  195. 60H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  196. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 100
  197. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 75
  198. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  199. 72H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 8.4 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  200. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 110
  201. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
  202. 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  203. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  204. 96H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 7.5 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  205. STORM
  206. 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 120
  207. 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  208. 120H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 5.7 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  209. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  210. T=CI=2.5-

  212. WTIO30 FMEE 170737 CCA
  213. ***************CORRECTIVE**************
  214. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  215. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  216. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20232024
  217. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  218. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 0600 UTC:
  219. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 51.0 E
  220. (NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  221. FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  222. MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
  223. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
  224. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  225. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  226. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  227. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  228. 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 155
  229. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
  230. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  231. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  232. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  233. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  234. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  235. 12H: 2024/05/17 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  236. STORM
  237. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 130
  238. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  239. 24H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 49.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  240. STORM
  241. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 130
  242. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 75
  243. 36H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 8.9 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  244. STORM
  245. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 130
  246. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 75
  247. 48H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 8.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  248. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 130
  249. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 85
  250. 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
  251. 60H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 7.6 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  252. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 270 SW: 280 NW: 130
  253. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85
  254. 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
  255. 72H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.7 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  256. STORM
  257. 28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 280 NW: 130
  258. 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 85
  259. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  260. 96H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  261. STORM
  262. 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 130
  263. 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 95
  264. 120H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.7 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  265. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  266. T=CI=3.0

  268. WTIO30 FMEE 171245
  269. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  270. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  271. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20232024
  272. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  273. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 1200 UTC:
  274. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.7 S / 50.3 E
  275. (EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
  276. FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
  277. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT
  278. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 1.0/6 H
  279. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
  280. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  281. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  282. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  283. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 315 NW: 110
  284. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 130 NW: 65
  285. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  286. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  287. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
  288. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
  289. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  290. 12H: 2024/05/18 00 UTC: 8.5 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  291. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 295 NW: 100
  292. 24H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 48.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  293. STORM
  294. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 295 NW: 100
  295. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 65
  296. 36H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 8.2 S / 48.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  297. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 230 SW: 305 NW: 110
  298. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 65
  299. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
  300. 48H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.8 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  301. STORM
  302. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 240 SW: 305 NW: 110
  303. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 65
  304. 60H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 7.0 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  305. STORM
  306. 28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 315 NW: 110
  307. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 75
  308. 72H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.8 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  309. STORM
  310. 28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 110
  311. 34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 195 NW: 75
  312. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  313. 96H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.2 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  314. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  315. T=2.0 CI=3.0

  317. WTIO30 FMEE 171846
  318. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  319. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  320. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20232024
  321. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  322. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/17 AT 1800 UTC:
  323. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5 S / 49.7 E
  324. (EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  325. FORTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
  326. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
  327. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
  328. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
  329. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  330. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
  331. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  332. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
  333. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75
  334. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  335. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  336. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  337. 12H: 2024/05/18 06 UTC: 8.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  338. STORM
  339. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 130
  340. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
  341. 24H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 7.9 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  342. STORM
  343. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 110
  344. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
  345. 36H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  346. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
  347. 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 75
  348. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
  349. 48H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  350. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 110
  351. 34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
  352. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
  353. 60H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  354. STORM
  355. 28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 120
  356. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 65
  357. 72H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  358. STORM
  359. 28 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 120
  360. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 65
  361. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  362. 96H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.1 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  363. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  364. T=CI=2.5+ ***THE PREVIOUS CI ANALYSIS HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO 2.5 INSTEAD OF
  365. 3.0 FOR FRIDAY 17TH AT 06UTC AND 12UTC***

  367. WTIO30 FMEE 180051
  368. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  369. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  370. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20232024
  371. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  372. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 0000 UTC:
  373. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.1 S / 49.2 E
  374. (EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  375. FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
  376. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT
  377. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H
  378. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  379. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  380. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
  381. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  382. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
  383. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
  384. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  385. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  386. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  387. 12H: 2024/05/18 12 UTC: 7.9 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  388. STORM
  389. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
  390. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
  391. 24H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  392. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
  393. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  394. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
  395. 36H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  396. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  397. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  398. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  399. 48H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.4 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  400. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  401. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
  402. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 0
  403. 60H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.6 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  404. STORM
  405. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
  406. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0
  407. 72H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.8 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  408. STORM
  409. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  410. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 0
  411. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  412. 96H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  413. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  414. T=CI=3.0

  416. WTIO30 FMEE 180632
  417. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  418. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  419. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/11/20232024
  420. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  421. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 0600 UTC:
  422. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.4 E
  423. (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  424. FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
  425. MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
  426. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H
  427. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
  428. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  429. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
  430. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  431. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
  432. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
  433. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  434. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  435. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  436. 12H: 2024/05/18 18 UTC: 7.8 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  437. STORM
  438. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
  439. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
  440. 24H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.5 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  441. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
  442. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  443. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
  444. 36H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.8 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  445. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  446. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  447. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  448. 48H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  449. STORM
  450. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  451. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
  452. 60H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  453. STORM
  454. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
  455. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0
  456. 72H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.4 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  457. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  458. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  459. 96H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.1 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
  460. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  461. T=CI=3.0+

  463. WTIO30 FMEE 181213
  464. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  465. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  466. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/11/20232024
  467. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  468. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 1200 UTC:
  469. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 48.0 E
  470. (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  471. FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
  472. MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
  473. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
  474. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  475. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  476. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM
  477. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  478. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 165 NW: 140
  479. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
  480. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
  481. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  482. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  483. 12H: 2024/05/19 00 UTC: 7.7 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  484. STORM
  485. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
  486. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65
  487. 24H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 7.1 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  488. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
  489. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  490. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 0
  491. 36H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  492. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  493. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 65
  494. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
  495. 48H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.4 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  496. STORM
  497. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 150 NW: 95
  498. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
  499. 60H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 46.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  500. STORM
  501. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 85
  502. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 0
  503. 72H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  504. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
  505. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  506. NIL
  507. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  508. T=CI=3.5-

  510. WTIO30 FMEE 181837
  511. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  512. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  513. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/11/20232024
  514. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  515. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/18 AT 1800 UTC:
  516. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8 S / 47.1 E
  517. (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  518. FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
  519. MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
  520. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
  521. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  522. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  523. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM
  524. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  525. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 150
  526. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
  527. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
  528. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  529. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  530. 12H: 2024/05/19 06 UTC: 7.4 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  531. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
  532. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  533. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  534. 24H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  535. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
  536. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  537. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  538. 36H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 5.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  539. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
  540. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  541. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  542. 48H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 5.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  543. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
  544. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  545. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
  546. 60H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
  547. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 110
  548. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 65
  549. 72H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  550. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 110
  551. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  552. NIL
  553. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  554. T=CI=3.5-

  556. WTIO30 FMEE 190035
  557. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  558. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  559. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/11/20232024
  560. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  561. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 0000 UTC:
  562. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 46.4 E
  563. (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
  564. FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
  565. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT
  566. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/24 H
  567. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
  568. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
  569. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM
  570. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  571. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
  572. 34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
  573. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35
  574. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  575. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
  576. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  577. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  578. 12H: 2024/05/19 12 UTC: 6.8 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  579. 28 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 120
  580. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
  581. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  582. 24H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.0 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  583. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
  584. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
  585. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  586. 36H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  587. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 120
  588. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
  589. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
  590. 48H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.5 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  591. STORM
  592. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
  593. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 55
  594. 60H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, FILLING UP
  595. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 85
  596. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 55
  597. 72H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  598. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 155 NW: 95
  599. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  600. NIL
  601. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  602. T=CI=3.5-

  604. WTIO30 FMEE 190643
  605. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  606. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  607. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/11/20232024
  608. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  609. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 0600 UTC:
  610. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.9 E
  611. (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
  612. FORTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
  613. MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT
  614. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H
  615. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
  616. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
  617. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM
  618. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  619. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 100
  620. 34 KT NE: 30 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
  621. 48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 40 NW: 35
  622. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  623. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  624. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  625. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  626. 12H: 2024/05/19 18 UTC: 6.3 S / 45.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  627. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 85
  628. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55
  629. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0
  630. 24H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 5.6 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  631. 28 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 100
  632. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
  633. 48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0
  634. 36H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 45.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  635. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 0
  636. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
  637. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  638. 48H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.1 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  639. STORM
  640. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 0
  641. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 0
  642. 60H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
  643. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 85
  644. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 110 NW: 55
  645. 72H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.5 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  646. 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 95
  647. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  648. NIL
  649. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  650. T=CI=4.0+

  652. WTIO30 FMEE 191330 CCA
  653. ***************CORRECTIVE**************
  654. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  655. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  656. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/11/20232024
  657. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  658. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 1200 UTC:
  659. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.4 S / 45.5 E
  660. (SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
  661. FORTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
  662. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
  663. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/12 H
  664. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
  665. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
  666. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM
  667. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  668. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  669. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  670. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  671. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  672. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  673. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  674. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  675. 12H: 2024/05/20 00 UTC: 6.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  676. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 95
  677. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
  678. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 0
  679. 24H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.2 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  680. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
  681. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  682. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  683. 36H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.3 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  684. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  685. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  686. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  687. 48H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.6 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  688. STORM
  689. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  690. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  691. 60H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.0 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
  692. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 120
  693. 34 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 140 NW: 85
  694. 72H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 2.4 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  695. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 120
  696. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  697. NIL
  698. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  699. T=3.5- CI=4.0-

  701. WTIO30 FMEE 191840
  702. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  703. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  704. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/11/20232024
  705. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  706. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/19 AT 1800 UTC:
  707. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.2 S / 45.1 E
  708. (SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
  709. FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
  710. MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT
  711. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H
  712. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
  713. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
  714. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM
  715. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  716. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  717. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  718. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
  719. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  720. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  721. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  722. 12H: 2024/05/20 06 UTC: 6.0 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  723. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 100
  724. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 75
  725. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  726. 24H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.9 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
  727. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
  728. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  729. 48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0
  730. 36H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 4.0 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  731. STORM
  732. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  733. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  734. 48H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.2 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  735. STORM
  736. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  737. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  738. 60H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  739. 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 120
  740. 72H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.8 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  741. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  742. NIL
  743. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  744. T=3.5- CI=4.0-

  746. WTIO30 FMEE 200106
  747. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  748. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  749. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/11/20232024
  750. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  751. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0000 UTC:
  752. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.8 S / 44.8 E
  753. (SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
  754. FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  755. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  756. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
  757. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
  758. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
  759. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  760. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  761. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  762. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  763. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
  764. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  765. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  766. 12H: 2024/05/20 12 UTC: 5.3 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  767. STORM
  768. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 85
  769. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 55
  770. 24H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 3.8 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  771. STORM
  772. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 0
  773. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  774. 36H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  775. STORM
  776. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 0
  777. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0
  778. 48H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.5 S / 44.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING
  779. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  780. NIL
  781. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  782. T=3.5- CI=3.5-

  784. WTIO30 FMEE 200648
  785. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  786. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  787. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20232024
  788. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  789. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0600 UTC:
  790. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 43.8 E
  791. (SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  792. FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  793. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  794. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
  795. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  796. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  797. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  798. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  799. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  800. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  801. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
  802. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  803. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  804. 12H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.3 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  805. STORM
  806. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
  807. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65
  808. 24H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 3.3 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  809. STORM
  810. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
  811. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75
  812. 36H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 2.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  813. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120
  814. 48H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
  815. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  816. NIL
  817. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  818. T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

  820. WTIO30 FMEE 200648
  821. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  822. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  823. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/11/20232024
  824. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  825. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 0600 UTC:
  826. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1 S / 43.8 E
  827. (SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
  828. FORTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
  829. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  830. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
  831. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  832. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  833. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  834. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  835. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  836. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  837. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 300 KM
  838. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  839. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  840. 12H: 2024/05/20 18 UTC: 4.3 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  841. STORM
  842. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
  843. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65
  844. 24H: 2024/05/21 06 UTC: 3.3 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  845. STORM
  846. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
  847. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75
  848. 36H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 2.7 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  849. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120
  850. 48H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
  851. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  852. NIL
  853. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  854. T=3.0+ CI=3.5-

  856. WTIO30 FMEE 201300
  857. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  858. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
  859. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/11/20232024
  860. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)
  861. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/20 AT 1200 UTC:
  862. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.6 S / 43.9 E
  863. (FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
  864. FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
  865. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT
  866. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/S 0.0/6 H
  867. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
  868. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  869. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
  870. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  871. 28 KT NE: 55 SE: 100 SW: 205 NW: 195
  872. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
  873. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
  874. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
  875. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  876. 12H: 2024/05/21 00 UTC: 4.1 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  877. STORM
  878. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 220 NW: 130
  879. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 65
  880. 24H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 3.1 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
  881. STORM
  882. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 220 NW: 120
  883. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75
  884. 36H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.4 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
  885. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 220 NW: 120
  886. 48H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.6 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
  887. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  888. NIL
  889. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  890. T=3.0+ CI=3.5-
複製代碼
JTWC：
  1. 24S IALY 240520 1200 5.9S 43.7E SHEM 55 994
  2. 24S IALY 240520 0600 6.2S 44.0E SHEM 50 994
  3. 24S IALY 240520 0000 6.5S 44.5E SHEM 55 992
  4. 24S IALY 240519 1800 6.9S 44.8E SHEM 60 989
  5. 24S IALY 240519 1200 7.3S 45.3E SHEM 60 989
  6. 24S IALY 240519 0600 7.6S 45.9E SHEM 55 992
  7. 24S IALY 240519 0000 7.5S 46.6E SHEM 55 992
  8. 24S IALY 240518 1800 7.7S 47.1E SHEM 50 995
  9. 24S IALY 240518 1200 7.9S 47.8E SHEM 45 997
  10. 24S IALY 240518 0600 7.9S 48.6E SHEM 40 1002
  11. 24S IALY 240518 0000 8.0S 49.2E SHEM 40 1002
  12. 24S IALY 240517 1800 8.5S 49.9E SHEM 40 1002
  13. 24S IALY 240517 1200 8.8S 50.4E SHEM 40 1002
  14. 24S IALY 240517 0600 9.0S 51.0E SHEM 45 999
  15. 24S IALY 240517 0000 9.1S 51.8E SHEM 40 999
  16. 24S IALY 240516 1800 9.1S 52.2E SHEM 40 997
  17. 24S IALY 240516 1200 9.1S 52.5E SHEM 40 997
  18. 24S IALY 240516 0600 8.6S 52.9E SHEM 35 999
  19. 24S IALY 240516 0000 8.3S 53.1E SHEM 30 1005
  20. 24S IALY 240515 1800 8.1S 53.1E SHEM 30 1005
  21. 24S IALY 240515 1200 8.2S 53.0E SHEM 30 1005
  22. 24S IALY 240515 0600 7.9S 52.8E SHEM 30 1005
  23. 24S IALY 240515 0000 8.0S 52.4E SHEM 25 1005
  24. 24S IALY 240514 1800 8.5S 52.9E SHEM 25 1005
  25. 24S IALY 240514 1200 9.1S 53.0E SHEM 25 1004
  26. 24S IALY 240514 0600 9.6S 53.8E SHEM 20 1005
  27. 24S IALY 240514 0000 9.0S 54.3E SHEM 20 1005
複製代碼





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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 210109
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/11/20232024
  6. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0000 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.1 S / 43.0 E
  10. (FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY THREE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH 7 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 195 NW: 240
  22. 34 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 95 NW: 120
  23. 48 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 60 NW: 55
  24. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

  26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
  27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  29. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  30. 12H: 2024/05/21 12 UTC: 4.0 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
  31. TROPICAL STORM
  32. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 95
  33. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

  35. 24H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 2.7 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
  36. TROPICAL STORM
  37. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 215 NW: 140
  38. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 75

  40. 36H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  41. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 215 NW: 130




  46. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  47. NIL


  50. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  51. T=4.0- CI=4.0-

  53. CONVECTION WITHIN THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IDAYI HAS NOT CHANGED
  54. MUCH OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 24
  55. HOURS, ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES. THE SYSTEM'S PATTERN
  56. LOOKS LIKE A CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE MASS, WITH A DIVERGENCE OF
  57. ALTITUDE STILL WELL PRESENT. THE ASCAT METOP-C SWATH AT 1813Z
  58. MEASURES AN AVERAGE WIND FORCE OF 50KT, ENABLING US TO POSITION THE
  59. CENTER. THE SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LEADS US TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE
  60. DVORAK INTENSITY AND TO CHOOSE A MAXIMUM MEAN WIND FORCE SLIGHTLY
  61. HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES, THIS IS TO SAY 55KT.

  63. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IN COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, IALY KEEPS
  64. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A
  65. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FROM
  66. TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE
  67. TAKEN UP BY THE LOWER LAYERS, DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS FLOWING
  68. ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD REDIRECT ITS TRACK NORTHWARDS.
  69. LATER, A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DRIVES A WESTERLY FLOW
  70. WHICH SHOULD CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE STORM
  71. DISSIPATES. THE EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ALLOW US TO
  72. ESTABLISH A CONSONSUS ON A NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEASTERLY TRACK FOR A
  73. SYSTEM THAT SHOULD EVOLVE FAR FROM ANY INHABITED LAND.

  75. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  76. RATHER GOOD, WITH LOW SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, STRONG
  77. OCEAN POTENTIAL AND, LAST BUT NOT LEAST, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
  78. DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE LIKELY TO REMAIN AS A STRONG
  79. TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. BUT THIS NIGHT THE SHEAR SHOULD
  80. BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM,
  81. LEADING TO A REGULAR WEAKENING OF THE STRUCTURE FROM TUESDAY MORNING,
  82. UNTIL IT DISSIPATES ON WENESDAY.

  84. WAVES OF 4 TO 6 M ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NEAR THE KENYA AND SOUTHERN
  85. SOMALIA COAST.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 210657
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/11/20232024
  6. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 0600 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.9 S / 42.5 E
  10. (FOUR    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 7 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 85 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 220
  22. 34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 100
  23. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

  25. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  26. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  28. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  29. 12H: 2024/05/21 18 UTC: 3.5 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
  30. TROPICAL STORM
  31. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 205
  32. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100

  34. 24H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 1.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DISSIPATING
  35. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 100





  41. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  42. NIL


  45. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  46. T=CI=4.0+

  48. IALY'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 00 AND 06UTC.
  49. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 4.5, WITH AN EYE
  50. PATTERN BEGINNING TO FORM ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
  51. IMPROVING STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWING A
  52. SOLID, COMPACT CONVECTIVE CORE. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE REMARKABLY
  53. RESISTANT TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR. A 0602Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS WINDS
  54. OF AT LEAST 55KT. THE INTENSITY AT 06UTC IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 60
  55. KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE MAY BE TEMPORARILY
  56. REACHED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF THE EYE PATTERN CONTINUES. IALY IS
  57. AN EXCEPTIONALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THIS NORTH-WESTERN PART OF THE
  58. BASIN: IT IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF 5S/45E
  59. IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO THE
  60. KENYAN COAST).

  62. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
  63. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE CONTRIBUTION OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO
  64. THE FINAL STEERING FLOW IS PROBABLY GREATER THAN FORECAST. THE TRACK
  65. HAS THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM, CLOSER TO
  66. THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS,
  67. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE TAKEN UP BY THE
  68. LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE AFRICAN
  69. COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD.

  71. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  72. FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
  73. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AT A
  74. SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY TODAY. FROM TONIGHT, AS WIND SHEAR BECOMES MORE
  75. IMPACTFUL, GRADUALLY INJECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, A RAPID
  76. WEAKENING TREND SHOULD SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

  78. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  80. TANZANIA:
  81. - RAINFALL TOTALS CLOSE TO 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS ON PEMBA ISLAND
  82. UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  84. KENYA :
  85. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  86. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

  88. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  89. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 211240
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20232024
  6. 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1200 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.7 S / 42.1 E
  10. (FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH-WEST 5 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
  23. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45
  24. 64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 30 NW: 30

  26. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  27. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  29. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  30. 12H: 2024/05/22 00 UTC: 3.1 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
  31. TROPICAL STORM
  32. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 165
  33. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 95

  35. 24H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.4 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  41. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  42. NIL


  45. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  46. T=CI=4.5-

  48. BETWEEN 06 AND 09UTC, IALY'S EYE PATTERN BECAME BETTER DEFINED,
  49. LEADING TO SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS TEMPORARILY RISING TO 4.5.
  50. BETWEEN 09 AND 12UTC, THE EYE THEN WARMED UP A LITTLE, LOWERING THE
  51. DT, BUT IT IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
  52. SYSTEM'S PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 09UTC IS THUS ESTIMATED AT 65 KT, KEPT
  53. AS SUCH AT 12UTC BY INERTIA ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE RAGGED.
  54. IALY IS THEREFORE AN HISTORICALLY INTENSE SYSTEM FOR THE
  55. NORTH-WESTERN CORNER OF THE BASIN: IT IS NOT ONLY THE FIRST TROPICAL
  56. STORM BUT ALSO THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDED NORTH-WEST OF
  57. 5S/45E IN THE SATELLITE ERA (AND ALSO THE MOST INTENSE SO CLOSE TO
  58. THE KENYAN COAST).

  60. IN TERMS OF TRACK, IALY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN
  61. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER
  62. TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS TO THE FINAL STEERING FLOW. THE TRACK HAS
  63. THEREFORE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST IN THE SHORT TERM,
  64. CLOSER TO THE AFRICAN COAST, ALTHOUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE. FROM
  65. TONIGHT ONWARDS, AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE
  66. TAKEN UP BY LOWER LEVELS, THUS DOMINATED BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
  67. AFRICAN COAST, WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT TURN NORTHWARD THEN
  68. NORTHEASTWARD.

  70. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE SO FAR BEEN
  71. FAIRLY GOOD, WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND
  72. EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. FROM TONIGHT, WIND SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
  73. MORE IMPACTFUL AND SHOULD START TO DISRUPT THE VORTEX AND ENABLE DRY
  74. AIR INTRUSION INTO THE SYSTEM. A RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD THUS
  75. SET IN UNTIL FULL DISSIPATION ON WEDNESDAY.

  77. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  79. TANZANIA:
  80. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  81. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  83. KENYA :
  84. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  85. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  87. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  88. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 211837
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/11/20232024
  6. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/21 AT 1800 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.2 S / 42.0 E
  10. (FOUR    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100
  23. 48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 50 NW: 45

  25. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  26. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  28. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  29. 12H: 2024/05/22 06 UTC: 2.3 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
  30. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 120
  31. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65

  33. 24H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 0.8 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  39. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  40. NIL


  43. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  44. PT=4.0- CI=4.5-

  46. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS EVOLVED: INITIALLY
  47. WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE CONFIGURATION UP TO 14UTC, CONVECTION RAPIDLY
  48. INVADED THE CENTER, LEAVING IALY IN A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. IN
  49. THE FINAL MOMENTS, CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WARMED UP, LEAVING A
  50. LARGER SHARE OF THE CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. IN SUCH A
  51. CONFIGURATION, AN ANALYSIS IN PT OF 4.0- CAN BE MADE AND, DUE TO
  52. INERTIA, THE CI REMAINS AT 4.5-. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
  53. SYSTEM AND THEREFORE ITS RAPID RESPONSE IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, WIND
  54. INERTIA CAN BE ESTIMATED TO BE LOWER. CONSEQUENTLY, AND PARTIALLY
  55. VALIDATED BY A SMOS DATA OF 47KT AT 1451UTC AND A SAR DATA OF 50KT AT
  56. 1524UTC, WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55KT, LEAVING IALY AT THE STAGE OF A
  57. STRONG TROPICAL STORM.

  59. IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-LIMITED DUE TO ITS FAST FOLLOWING
  60. DISAPPEARANCE. WHEREAS, DURING PREVIOUS NETWORKS, THE SYSTEM
  61. CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONGER
  62. THAN EXPECTED CONTRIBUTION FROM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOWS, THE LATEST
  63. ANALYSIS POINTS VALIDATE THE NORTHWARD TRACK. WITH THE WEAKENING OF
  64. THE SYSTEM, THE LOW-LEVEL DIRECTING FLOW DOMINATES. AS THE TRADE
  65. WINDS SKIRT THE COAST OF AFRICA, THEY SHOULD GUIDE THE TRACK
  66. NORTHWARDS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12H. IT WILL BE
  67. INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
  68. THE EQUATOR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE CASE
  69. ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS!

  71. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GOOD SO
  72. FAR, WITH LOW-TO-MODERATE SHEAR, STRONG OCEAN POTENTIAL AND EXCELLENT
  73. ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE. WHILE THE MODELS PREDICTED A MORE PRONOUNCED
  74. SHEAR, EXPLAINING IN PART THEIR TENDENCY TO PREDICT A WEAKER SYSTEM
  75. (TO WHICH IS ADDED THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, A CHARACTERISTIC
  76. THAT MODELS WITH SOMEWHAT COARSE RESOLUTION FIND HARD TO GRASP), THE
  77. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
  78. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EFFECT ON VORTEX STRUCTURE. IN THE CASE
  79. OF A SMALL SYSTEM, THIS LEADS TO A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE INTENSITY,
  80. AND WITH THE SUBSEQUENT INJECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM, THE
  81. CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION BY TOMORROW WEDNESDAY WILL BE MET.

  83. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  85. TANZANIA:
  86. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  87. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  89. KENYA :
  90. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  91. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

  93. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  94. - WAVES NEARING 4M OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 220037
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/11/20232024
  6. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0000 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.7 S / 42.0 E
  10. (THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH 5 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.5/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 26 KM

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 100

  24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
  25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

  27. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  28. 12H: 2024/05/22 12 UTC: 1.9 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
  29. 28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 150 NW: 110

  31. 24H: 2024/05/23 00 UTC: 0.6 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DISSIPATING





  37. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  38. NIL


  41. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  42. T=2.5 CI=3.5-

  44. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY'S CONFIGURATION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.
  45. REMAINING IN A CURVED BAND, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION IS LOSING
  46. CONSISTENCY, LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF A DVORAK ANALYSIS FOR A SHORT
  47. TIME YET. A T OF 2.5 CAN BE ESTIMATED, WHILE INERTIA KEEPS CI AT
  48. 3.5-. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE WIND
  49. IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH INERTIA, AND MAXIMUM WINDS
  50. OF AROUND 40KT ARE THEREFORE ESTIMATED. MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IALY
  51. IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

  53. IALY'S TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SHORT-TERM AS IT FASTENED TO DISAPPEAR.
  54. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE NORTHERLY
  55. TRACK WILL BE MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE
  56. TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
  57. IF, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS
  58. THE EQUATOR, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TO BE THE CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT
  59. FORECASTS!

  61. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY
  62. DETERIORATING. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE
  63. TO THE AFRICAN COAST, THE WEAK IALY STRUCTURE IS UNABLE TO MAINTAIN
  64. ITSELF. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, IALY'S INTENSITY
  65. COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT FOR IT TO DISSIPATE IN THE
  66. MORNING OF WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
  67. LONGER.


  70. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  72. TANZANIA:
  73. - RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 100-150 MM IN 24H ON PEMBA ISLAND UNTIL
  74. WEDNESDAY NOON.

  76. KENYA :
  77. - POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 50 TO 100MM IN 24H ON THE COAST.
  78. - WAVES OF 4 TO 5 M OFFSHORE FROM TODAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING,
  79. WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

  81. SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  82. - WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=

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MFR:

  1. WTIO30 FMEE 220646
  2. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

  5. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/11/20232024
  6. 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IALY)

  8. 2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 0600 UTC:
  9. WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.1 S / 42.4 E
  10. (THREE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
  11. FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
  12. MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 7 KT

  14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

  16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
  17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
  18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

  20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
  21. 28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 185
  22. 34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 95 NW: 75

  24. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
  25. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

  27. 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
  28. 12H: 2024/05/22 18 UTC: 1.5 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING






  35. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
  36. NIL


  39. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
  40. T=2.0 CI=3.0-

  42. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION AROUND IALY HAS CHANGED LITTLE BUT
  43. IS STILL PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE IMAGES GPM FROM
  44. 0232 AND SSMIS-F16 FROM 0311 STILL SHOW AN EYE IN 37HGZ BUT
  45. WEAKENING, AND DRY AIR STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. IALY IS
  46. MAINTAINED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 35KT, BUT IALY
  47. IS IN ITS FINAL STAGES.

  49. IALY'S FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SHORT-LIVED DUE TO ITS IMMINENT RAPID
  50. DISSIPATION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE
  51. NORTHWARD TRACK IS BEING MAINTAINED BEFORE BEING CARRIED
  52. NORTHEASTWARDS BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. IT WILL
  53. BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER, OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORTEX
  54. WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CROSS THE EQUATOR, WHICH SHOULD NOT BE THE
  55. CASE ACCORDING TO CURRENT FORECASTS!

  57. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING
  58. RAPIDLY. WITH MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARRIVING CLOSE TO THE
  59. COAST OF AFRICA, IALY'S WEAK STRUCTURE CANNOT BE MAINTAINED. WITH
  60. CONVECTION BECOMING WEAKER AND WEAKER, THE INTENSITY OF IALY
  61. COLLAPSES. THE CONDITIONS FOR ITS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
  62. WILL BE REUNITED, WITH WINDS OF 30-25KT LIKELY TO LAST A LITTLE
  63. LONGER.

  65. EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER INHABITED LANDS :

  67. KENYA AND SOMALIA (EXTREME SOUTH)
  68. - WAVES NEARING 4M WEAKENING RAPIDLY.=

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