alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：98 W
擾動編號日期：2025 年 07 月 21 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 07 月 00 日 00 時
98W INVEST 250721 0000 8.5N 154.0E WPAC 15 0

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5N 154.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CYCLING OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH SOUTH-EAST. A 202355Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KTS) ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) ACCOMPANIED BY WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS
IT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AGREES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK WITH GEFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
DEVELOPMENT THAN ECENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.