alu

  熱帶風暴  
編號：09 E
名稱：Ivo

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 08 月 05 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 08 月 06 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 08 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：55 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1001 毫巴

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
EP, 91, 2025080512,   , BEST,   0,  91N,  904W,  25, 1010, DB,  34, NEQ








Tropical Weather Outlook Text        Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula.  Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin Thursday night or Friday morning.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles offshore of
the coast of Central America is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
it moves west-northwestward around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Roberts

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

NHC展望提升至High，70%

1. South of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple hundred miles offshore of the coast of Central
America have become a little better organized.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Roberts

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 90.1W TO 11.6N 95.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 90.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1N
90.4W, APPROXIMATELY 282NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA WITH
BROAD TURNING AND FLARING CONVECTION, AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BECOME A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (28-29C), AND
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91E
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HAVE A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061500Z.//
NNNN

king111807

NHC展望提升至80%

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
showing signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

king111807

NHC展望提升至90%

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
low moves west-northwestward around 15 mph.  For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

king111807

NHC展望提升至100%，即將升格

South of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Microwave satellite imagery and derived surface wind data indicate
that the disturbance located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized this morning. If
current trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated for
either a tropical depression or tropical storm this afternoon. The
system is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, parallel to, but offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of the system's formation or exact track, heavy rainfall
is possible along the southern coast of Mexico today and tomorrow.
For additional information, including storm warnings, please see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

king111807

NHC升格09E，命名Ivo

372
WTPZ54 KNHC 062055
TDSEP4

Tormenta Tropical Ivo Discusión Número 1
Centro Nacional de Huracanes del SNM Miami FL  EP092025
300 PM CST miércoles 06 de agosto de 2025

Imágenes visibles GOES-E de un minuto, imágenes de microondas y datos
de dispersión de esta mañana indican que la perturbación al sur de
México se ha vuelto mucho mejor organizada. El sistema ha desarrollado
características de bandas, y el análisis TAFB Dvorak más reciente
muestra un Final-T de 2.0. Los datos ASCAT mostraron vientos máximos
entre 30-35 kt, por lo que se han iniciado advertencias sobre la
Tormenta Tropical Ivo, con una intensidad inicial de 35 kt.

Ivo tiene una circulación relativamente pequeña, pero está incrustado
dentro de un área bastante grande de convección profunda. Los
diagnósticos de SHIPS indican que la cizalladura del viento podría ser
un factor limitante para la intensidad de Ivo durante los próximos dos
días, pero la tormenta tropical está en un ambiente de lo contrario
propicio para el fortalecimiento. El pronóstico del CNH sigue el
consenso multi-modelo y muestra que Ivo alcanza la fuerza de huracán
dentro de los próximos dos días, pero hay alrededor de 30 kt de
propagación en la guía de intensidad, tanto por encima como por debajo
del pronóstico oficial.

Ivo se está moviendo con bastante rapidez hacia el oeste-noroeste
cerca de 19 kt. Una cresta de capa profunda centrada sobre el suroeste
de los Estados Unidos debería dirigir a Ivo paralelo a la costa de
México durante los próximos dos días. Se pronostica que la cresta se
debilite para el fin de semana, haciendo que Ivo se mueva a una
velocidad de avance más lenta, pero para entonces Ivo alcanzará SST
más fríos y un ambiente más estable. Eso debería causar que el ciclón
se debilite rápidamente y gire hacia el oeste, dirigido principalmente
por un flujo de bajo nivel. El pronóstico de la trayectoria del CNH
está cerca del centro de la envoltura de guía, muy cerca de HCCA
durante el período de 5 días.

Se espera que los vientos con fuerza de tormenta tropical asociados
con Ivo permanezcan en alta mar de la costa de México, sin embargo, la
lluvia fuerte y el oleaje fuerte son probables a lo largo de porciones
de la costa suroeste de México durante el próximo día o dos.

POSICIONES DE PRONÓSTICO Y VIENTOS MÁXIMOS

INIT 06/2100Z 14.2N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 15.4N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.2N 105.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.9N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 20.7N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT BAJO

$$
Pronosticador D. Zelinsky