king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：92 S
擾動編號日期：2025 年 09 月 06 日 00 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 09 月 00 日 00 時
92S.INVEST.15kts-0mb-5.0S-82.0E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S
78.1E, APPROXIMATELY 254 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION WITH
LITTLE TO NO BANDING EVIDENT. 850MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
INVEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROF. A 071605Z ASCAT-C
IMAGE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION, WITH
20-30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF INVEST 92S. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), MODERATE DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW
(PRIMARILY WESTWARD) ALOFT, AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, PASSING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.1S 72.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 71.3E, APPROXIMATELY 106 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING EVIDENT.
AN 850MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE INVEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH.  A 081636Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 15-20 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR
THE AREA INDICATES MODERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ON A WESTWARD TRACK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT AS WELL THAT 92S WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
ECENS SHOWING HIGHER INTENSITY SUPPORT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8S 71.0E TO 9.1S 63.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8S
71.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT
8.7S 71.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM SW OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING.
A 081725Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
MODERATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25-30 KTS), OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C) AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS ON A WESTWARD TRACK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS
WELL THAT 92S WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH ECENS SHOWING
HIGHER INTENSITY SUPPORT.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092200Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格03S

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091200Z --- NEAR 9.7S 68.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 68.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 10.2S 66.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 10.2S 65.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.8S 64.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 9.1S 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 8.5S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 8.5S 60.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 8.1S 58.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 9.8S 68.0E.
09SEP25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

king111807

MFR編號第3號

WTIO30 FMEE 091248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20252026
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2025/09/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 68.6 E
(NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/09/10 00 UTC: 10.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 0

24H: 2025/09/10 12 UTC: 10.0 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 0

36H: 2025/09/11 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 260 NW: 0

48H: 2025/09/11 12 UTC: 8.8 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 260 NW: 0

60H: 2025/09/12 00 UTC: 8.1 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 260 NW: 0

72H: 2025/09/12 12 UTC: 7.6 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 270 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/09/13 12 UTC: 7.5 S / 59.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2025/09/14 12 UTC: 6.7 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SYSTEM 92S, LOCATED 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS SEEN ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE SLIGHTLY DETERIORATE, TAKING ON
A SHEARED APPEARANCE. CONVECTION IS DISPLACED BY NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR ABOUT 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE LATTER COULD BE
IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL
AS IN THE 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM GPM AT 0717Z AND GCOM AT
0847Z, BUT WITH A LOSS OF CENTER DEFINITION IN THE MOST RECENT
IMAGES. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0428Z SHOWED A CLOSED, STILL ELONGATED
CIRCULATION, WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 34 KT BUT POLLUTED
BY CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE CIMSS ANALYSES ESTIMATE THE MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT, WHILE OUR SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS IS
CLOSER TO 25 KT. TO BALANCE THESE DIFFERENT ASSESSMENTS AND
CONSIDERING THE SHEAR, THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE SET AT 30
KT. FURTHERMORE, THE DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CURVATURE LEADS US
TO CATEGORIZE THIS SYSTEM AS A DISTURBED AREA.

TWO HIGH-PRESSURE CENTERS ARE PRESENT AT LOW LEVELS: ONE NEAR THE
AUSTRALIAN COAST AND THE OTHER WELL SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. THEY EXTEND
THEIR RESPECTIVE RIDGES TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE BASIN, AND THE LOW
LINKED WITH THE SYSTEM IS FOUND IN THE BAROMETRIC COL FORMED BETWEEN
THEM. THE SYSTEMA  S TRACK, INITIALLY STEERED BY THE AUSTRALIAN
RIDGE, IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE END OF THE UPCOMING NIGHT.
AS THE HIGHS SHIFT ACROSS THE BASIN, THE SECOND RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND
TAKES OVER, REDIRECTING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EVENTUALLY END ITS COURSE NOT FAR FROM THE SEYCHELLES, BUT IN
A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR,
WHICH DISPLACES CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND MAINTAINS IT AT
THE DISTURBED AREA STAGE. THIS SHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMA  S LIFETIME AND INJECTS DRY AIR AT
SEVERAL LEVELS ABOVE THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THE TRADE WIND SURGE OVER
STILL-WARM WATERS MAINTAINS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO KEEP A FRAGILE BALANCE DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR
CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A DECREASE IN SHEAR WOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE, OR EVEN
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, FOR INSTANCE BY SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS
IS NOT THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.