king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：97 W
擾動編號日期：2025 年 10 月 20 日 08 時
97W.INVEST.15kts-0mb-24.5N-126.2E

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.2N
124.5E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL
ASCAT 10201213Z PASS REVEALS A WAVE FEATURE PASSING ISHIGAKIJIMA,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG COLD-SURGE EVENT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT THE WAVE FEATURE PUSHING WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE COLD
SURGE FLOW, PULLING GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE OF TAIWAN AND WRAPPING INTO THE CUSP, EVENTUALLY HELPING
TO CLOSE IT OFF INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM, TRACKING SOUTH-EAST OF TAIWAN
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS AND
ECENS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW THIS WAVE AND SUBSEQUENT INTERACTIONS WITH
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BUT ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JMA:TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 25N 124E SW SLOWLY.

king111807

台灣東部外海搓出一個熱帶擾動97W
形成機制有點複雜先不討論

預估未來兩天會著東部近海往西南移動
穿越巴士海峽
「成為颱風的機率不高」
歐洲模式預估的強度
是東北季風太強了
無法確切反應系統本身強度

另外要注意這個低壓往西南移動時
距離台灣遠近
會決定下半場共伴效應的威力

以上簡單提醒囉！

king111807

【熱帶擾動９７Ｗ】
目前位於台灣以東
今天隨著東北季風更為增強
將加速往西南移動
明天(23)抵達巴士海峽後逐漸消散
要發展，只剩下今天了～

也因為這個低壓的存在
北、桃、基、宜、北花的強降雨
會持續到週六(25)
週日(26)起會逐漸緩和。

北部、宜蘭光復節假期天氣不盡理想
有安排戶外活動的朋友請多注意天氣資訊！

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.4N 123.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 123.1E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST
OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A PATCH OF PERSISTENT, FLARING CONVECTION. A 220108
ASCAT METOP-C SHOWS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION POSITIONED JUST TO
THE EAST OF GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE TO THE WEST
AND EXTENSIVE 15-20 KT WINDS WRAPPING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS). GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT 97W POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AS A DISTINCT, BUT SHORT LIVED,
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEPARATE FROM THE COLD SURGE FLOW OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

【熱帶擾動９７Ｗ】
目前已經走到巴士海峽，繼續往西南西移動
將逐漸減弱、消散。
隨著低壓遠離，台灣周邊水氣也略為減少
（但還是很多）
北部、東部迎風面關係，依然容易下雨
尤其基隆北海岸、宜蘭、台北東側、花東沿海、恆春、雙北山區
仍有大雨發生的機會～

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.1N 118.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.