AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N
147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030400Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LOCALIZED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10 KTS,
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPMENT THAN ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.5N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. 031127Z AND 031042Z
ASCAT PASSES SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF
25 KT WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WINDS TO BOTH THE NORTH AND
WEST ARE MUCH WEAKER THOUGH (10-15 KTS) AND DO NOT CREATE A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) YET. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15
KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS WELL AS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. GFS, NAVGEM, AND
GEFS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO
ECMWF AND ECENS, WHICH DEPICT A SLOWER CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 145.1E TO 12.1N 142.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 145.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0N 145.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031652Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DISPLACED CELLS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. A 031127Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH A SWATH OF 20KT WINDS CURVING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA WILL STEADILY CONSOLIDATE OVER NEXT 24
HOURS, AS WELL AS TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EURO MODEL IS SLIGHTLY
DELAYED ON THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE WITH CONSOLIDATION TAKING PLACE IN
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041930Z.
//
NNNN
提升卡
千斤頂
照妖鏡
