king111807

  副熱帶風暴  
編號：01 F ( 99 P )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 12 月 02 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 12 月 05 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：45 kts ( SS )
海平面最低氣壓：993 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科
  擾動編號資料  
99P.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-16.0S-156.1W

以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0S
156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 155.3W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

king111807

FMS編號01F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 022201 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD01F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
149.3W AT 021800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD01F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
05 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. TD01F LIES IN A
LOW-MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS COOLER SST AND
HIGH WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 48HRS WHILST TRANSITIONING INTO A
SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND VERY LOW AFTER 48HRS.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

king111807

JTWC判定為副熱帶風暴

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2S
147.2W, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI. THIS SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS
DEEP CONSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF AN
EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE, A
030943Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE WIND
FIELD OF 99P. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REVEAL UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOL (25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
SHARP TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS ABOVE THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSIT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. FOR HAZARDS
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

FMS發布最終報

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 042309 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 23.4S
143.2W AT 042100UTC. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF LLCC. SLANTING NW-SE UPPER
TROUGH IS GRADUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE DISTURBANCE. TD01F LIES IN A
HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. SST AROUND
24 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS
COOLER SST AS A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW.

THIS IS THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS
SITUATION CHANGES.

*********************************************************************
************

NO OTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.