king111807

  熱帶低壓  
編號：02 F ( 06 P )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2025 年 12 月 05 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 12 月 07 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：999 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
90P.INVEST.15kts-0mb-11.9S-156.0W

以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S
157.9W, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SMALL, YET DEFINED, LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KNOTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 90P TRANSITING
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A COMPACT WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS
IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL, DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-
FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 157.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5 152.8W, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BORA BORA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A COMPACT AND MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WHICH HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION IS
FLARING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, DEVELOPING INTO NASCENT BANDING
FEATURES AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 041156Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL REGION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
SHALLOW BANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO TOWARDS THE DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANALYSIS WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING.
ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P TO BE TROPICAL IN NATURE, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MODELS AGREE THAT 90P
WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS NORTH OF TAHITI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S 151.7W TO 19.6S 144.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 151.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5S 152.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 151.4W, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF BORA BORA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT
AND MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, DEVELOPING INTO NASCENT BANDING FEATURES AND
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 041156Z NOAA-20 ATMS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTED A SMALL REGION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A SHALLOW BANDING
FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, BEGINNING TO WRAP INWARD TOWARDS THE
DEVELOPING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR ANALYSIS WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 29 C.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF 99P OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. ANALYSIS SHOWS 90P TO BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
48 HOURS. MODELS AGREE THAT 90P WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF TAHITI.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052100Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格06P

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/042051ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 149.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 149.7W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.2S 146.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 19.2S 144.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 23.0S 142.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 149.0W.
05DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
NORTH OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z AND 060300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 042100)
NNNN

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 18.7S 147.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 147.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 21.7S 145.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 146.5W.
06DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS CENTRAL
CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR AND IS NOW POSITIONED WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SOON DROP BELOW 28 C
AND THE CIRCULATION WILL ENCOUNTER 30+ KNOT WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL
DEGRADE THE REST OF THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P WILL
COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET.//
NNNN