king111807

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：05 U ( 07 S )
名稱：Bakung

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 12 月 07 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期:2025 年 12 月 12 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 12 月 12 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 12 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：90 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：80 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：957 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
91S.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-5.3S-92.2E



以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1S
98.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTHWEST OF CHIRSTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 092326Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-
30 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTHERN SUMATRA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.8S 99.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7S 100.1E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM WEST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 101520Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS ELEVATED WINDS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT
INITIALLY TRANSITS SOUTHEAST ALONG SUMATRA AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

BoM編號05U

Tropical low (05U) to pass to the north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands on the weekend.
A tropical low (05U) is expected to form in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra, well north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and move southwest over the coming days.
The environment is slightly favourable for development of 05U. The likelihood of 05U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from Saturday.
05U is expected to pass well to the north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Sunday and is not expected to cause a direct impact over the islands. However, forecasts need to be monitored over the next several days for potential changes.
A second tropical low may form to the north of the Australian Region and follow a similar path of 05U early next week. 7-Day forecast will be issued for this system once there is higher confidence of it forming.
Last updated
38 minutes ago, 01:52 pm AEDT

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3S 101.8E TO 9.8S 97.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 101.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7S 100.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN 110223Z METOP-C 25KM
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS ELEVATED WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE 91S HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT IS CURRENTLY BEING RESTRICTED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY
FROM SUMATRA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120900Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格07S

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110851ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 8.2S 98.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S 98.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 8.9S 97.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 9.5S 95.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.0S 93.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 10.6S 92.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 11.1S 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 11.4S 90.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 11.8S 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 8.4S 98.5E.
11DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 110900).//
NNNN

king111807

命名Bakung

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:42 am WST on Saturday 13 December 2025


Tropical Cyclone Bakung (Category 1) was located at 2:00 am AWST (12:30 am CCT)
near 8.6S 95.7E,
that is 420 km north northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving west
southwest at 17 kilometres per hour.
Tropical Cyclone Bakung (05U) was named by Jakarta, Indonesia Friday night.
Bakung is expected to continue moving to the west southwest to be well to the
northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands before becoming slow moving on Sunday.
Bakung may remain a tropical cyclone for several days. A second tropical low
further to the north may interact with Bakung early next week resulting in
higher uncertainty in future movement.
Bakung will remain far enough northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands over the
weekend for no direct impacts to be felt. There is a small chance Bakung could
move closer to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Saturday 13
December (7:30 am CCT Saturday 13 December).


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king111807

BoM升格澳式C2

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:40 pm WST on Saturday 13 December 2025


Tropical Cyclone Bakung (Category 2) was located at 2:00 pm AWST (12:30 pm CCT)
near 9.3S 93.6E,
that is 480 km northwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving west southwest
at 20 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Bakung (05U) was named by Jakarta, Indonesia, on Friday night.
Bakung is expected to continue moving to the west southwest before becoming
slow moving on Sunday, remaining well to the northwest of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.

Bakung may remain a tropical cyclone for several days. A second tropical low
further to the north may interact with Bakung early next week resulting in
higher uncertainty in future movement.

Bakung will remain far enough northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands over the
weekend for no direct impacts to be felt. There is a small chance Bakung could
move closer to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during next week.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Saturday 13
December (7:30 pm CCT Saturday 13 December).