king111807

  二級熱帶氣旋     強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：09-20252026 / 03 U ( 09 S )
名稱：Grant

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 12 月 11 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2025 年 12 月 18 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2025 年 12 月 23 日 10 時
                       2025 年 12 月 27 日 10 時-移交法國氣象局發報
撤編日期　　：2026 年 01 月 07 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：55 kts
法國氣象局 ( MFR )：110 kts
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：120 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：946 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
93S.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-12.0S-117.0E


以上資料來自：BoM、MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

BoM編號03U

Tropical Low 03U
Tropical low (03U) is forming south of Indonesia, risk of a tropical cyclone increases to moderate from Wednesday.
A tropical low (03U) is forming south of Indonesia and is expected to move slowly over the next few days.
Conditions are only slightly favourable and 03U is expected to develop slowly with ratings increasing to Low (5-15%) from Sunday and then Moderate (25%) from Wednesday.
In the longer term 03U is expected to move slowly west or southwest, most likely remaining well offshore from the WA coast.
Last updated
3 hours ago, 11:11 am AEDT

king111807

JTWC評級Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.3S 113.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SHALLOW
AND DIFFUSE CONVECTION. A 141313Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED SWATHS
OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). THE MAIN HINDRANCE FOR THE SYSTEM IS DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 93S
STAYING QUASISTATIONARY AS IT BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD. GFS IS THE FIRST TO
CONSOLIDATE THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MORE
HESITANT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.2S 114.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY 529 NM EAST
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A LARGE BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST, EVIDENT IN A
161409Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 161641 METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 25
TO 30 KT WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OF 93S BEYOND 24-36 HOURS, WITH GFS CONSOLIDATING MOST
QUICKLY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 170200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8S 113.3E TO 14.5S 107.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 113.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.2S 113.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 451 NM EAST
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A COMPACT AND
RAPIDLY ROTATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN A 162143Z SSMIS IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND PERSISTENT WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH GFS
CONSOLIDATING MOST QUICKLY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 93S OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180200Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格09S

WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 110.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 110.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 12.5S 109.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 12.7S 108.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 13.0S 107.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 13.5S 106.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 13.8S 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 13.7S 102.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 13.0S 101.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 110.0E.
18DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 637
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 21812Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (BAKUNG) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

king111807

BoM升格澳式C1，命名Grant

IDW24400

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 8:55 am WST on Tuesday 23 December 2025

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Grant (03U) has formed, and will pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands later on Christmas Eve or during Christmas Day.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Grant 03U at 6:30 am CCT:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.8 degrees South 100.4 degrees East, estimated to be 395 kilometres east of Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Movement: west at 7 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Grant is located over the Indian Ocean, to the east of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is forecast to move towards the west, and pass close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands later on Wednesday (Christmas Eve) or during Thursday (Christmas Day). It is expected to be at category 2 intensity as it passes by the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100km/h could develop at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands from as early as Wednesday afternoon, but more likely on Thursday. If the destructive core of Tropical Cyclone Grant passes close to the Cocos (Keeling) Islands then a period of DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h are possible, most likely during Thursday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Wednesday.

Tides may rise above the normal high tide mark on the Wednesday and Thursday evening high tides, with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas and strong currents in the lagoon.

Recommended Action:
For the latest alerts and warnings from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands Emergency Management Committee visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 1:30 pm CCT Tuesday 23 December.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

king111807

BoM升格澳式C2

IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Friday 26 December 2025

Tropical Cyclone Grant (Category 2) was located at 8:00 am AWST (6:30 am CCT)
near 11.9S 93.5E,
that is 365 km west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands and moving west at 13 kilometres
per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Grant is moving west over the Indian Ocean and further away
from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will not have any further direct impacts to the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.


The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Friday 26 December.