king111807

  熱帶低壓  
編號：03 F / 04 U ( 08 P )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 12 月 12 日 08 時
JTWC升格日期:2025 年 12 月 14 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2025 年 12 月 17 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：998 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
94P.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.9.6S.164.1E



以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

FMS編號03F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 112244 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F CENTER [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.8S
168.2E AT 112100UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
HIMAWARI-9 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

THE DISTURBANCE LIES UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOW SHEAR WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW AND MODERATE AFTER 48HRS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S
164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM EAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING
OBSCURED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, HIGH (25-30
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE LACK OF A DISTINCT
LLCC WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, WHILE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 140100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5S 167.9E TO 14.4S 170.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 132330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 168.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.5S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 168.1E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM NORTH
OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A
132123Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS (15-20 KTS) ON THE WESTERN SIDE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
10 TO 15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 94P FURTHER CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHILE
TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150100Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格08P

WTPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 169.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 169.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 14.9S 171.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 15.3S 173.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 15.5S 175.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 15.7S 178.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 16.5S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 17.3S 174.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 170.2E.
15DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 172.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 172.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 14.8S 173.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 172.4E.
16DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
BECOME COMPLETELY DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC WITH ACCELERATED DECOUPLING
CAUSED BY HIGH (30+ KTS) WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MOVED ERRATICALLY
OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS TRACKING EAST, NORTHWEST, AND FINALLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THE
CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE NEAR SURFACE STEERING FLOW
AND WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN