Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low (14U) is developing northwest of New Caledonia. High chance of developing into a tropical cyclone early next week.
A tropical low (14U) lies to the northwest of New Caledonia.
There is a Low chance that 14U will develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday, increasing to a Moderate chance from Friday and a High chance from Monday.
14U is likely to remain east of the Australian region and well to the east of the Australian mainland.
Over the weekend, the system may take a track to the southeast and move closer towards Norfolk Island early next week. However, there does remains uncertainty in the track and development early next week.
Residents on Norfolk Island should monitor forecasts for updates.
Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:06 am AEDT
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2S
160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, COMPLETELY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPARSE CONVECTION
DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. A 121031Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
PATCH OF 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS
SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE
CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.3S 160.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 159.9E, APPROXIMATELY 563 NM
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS),
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28
C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE
STRUCTURE OF 94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8S 157.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
RELEGATED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE
AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), MINIMAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD 28-33 KTS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPS21 PGTW 191230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 159.2E TO 22.4S 162.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 159.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.1S 158.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 159.3E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
CENTER. A 191048Z METOP-C ASCAT REVEALS 18-23 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF 94P. IN ADDITION, A LARGE SWATH OF WINDS UP TO
25 KTS ARE OBSERVED 112 NM AND DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KT), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 C), AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW
ONGOING SUPPORT FOR 94P TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 35 KTS IN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201230Z.
//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 190746 UTC.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF 160E IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER RSMC NADI'S AOR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS IT ENTERS THIS AOR.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN NADI AOR IS LOW.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 192112 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTER WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.6S 160.3E AT
191800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD05F SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS PERSISTENT.
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. TD05F LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
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