AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.5N
134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 171 NM SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM WEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AS WELL AS
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) OFFSET WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-20 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT 91W
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 140130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 132.5E TO 10.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.8N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM WEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS, A 130025
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS TO THE NORTH AS WELL
AS A WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C)
OFFSET WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150130Z.
//
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