king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：92 P
擾動編號日期：2026 年 01 月 22 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
92P.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-12.1S-138.3E

king111807

BoM編號18U

Tropical Low 18U
Tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria moving towards Cape York Peninsula.
A tropical low (18U) is forming in the Gulf of Carpentaria and moving to the east towards Cape York Peninsula.
The low is likely to be slow moving off the western Cape York Peninsula from Friday and drift southwards towards the southern Gulf coast next week.
There are mixed prospects for any development of this low. At this stage 18U only has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from late Friday onwards.
The longer term possibilities next week include movement over northwest Queensland and to the west towards the Northern Territory.
Residents of north Queensland and eastern Northern Territory should monitor forecasts for the latest updates.
Last updated
5 hours ago, 07:46 pm AEDT

king111807

JTWC直接評級Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.2S
140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A 221203Z METOP-C
MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING THE FLARING CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. A NEW AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE LLCC IN RECENT HOURS IN EIR IMAGERY. A 221204 METOP-C PARTIAL
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15KT)
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH 20 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THIS IS OFFSET BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMELINE AND LOCATION
FOR CONSOLIDATION WITH THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE BOTH
INDICATING CONSOLIDATION IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT 36-
48 HOURS WHILE TURNING SOUTHWARD, WHEREAS THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE LEAN TOWARDS DELAYED CONSOLIDATION AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD AND CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA INTO THE CORAL SEA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.