king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：96 S
擾動編號日期：2026 年 01 月 27 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 01 月 00 日 00 時
96S.INVEST.15kts-1008mb-17.1S-53.3E

king111807

MFR編號第8號

WTIO30 FMEE 271322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20252026
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8

2.A POSITION 2026/01/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 52.0 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1009 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/28 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

24H: 2026/01/28 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

36H: 2026/01/29 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

48H: 2026/01/29 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

60H: 2026/01/30 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

72H: 2026/01/30 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.0

OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE
EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE CONDITIONS FOR INITIATING A DVORAK ANALYSIS
AT 1.0 ARE MET. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETRIC DATA FROM 0244Z HY-2C AND
0614Z ASCAT C SHOW THAT A LARGE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PRESENT ON
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, MAXIMUM WINDS DO NOT EXCEED 20KT.

THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
THE MONSOON FLOW IN THE ABSENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHERN TRACK. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS.

SYSTEM 08 IS DEVELOPING IN AN UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS
DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW, IT IS
LACKING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF IN THE SOUTH
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS SHEAR FAVORS DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS INTO THE INNER CORE. THE LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL REACH THE
STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS LOW. ON SATURDAY, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISAPPEAR IN THE NORTHERN PART OF A
MID-LATITUDE LOW.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MAURITIUS :
- POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 100MM BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.