alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 P
擾動編號日期：2026 年 01 月 29 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 02 月 03 日 20 時
99P INVEST 260129 1200 15.5S 169.2W SHEM 25 1006

king111807

FMS編號08F

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 300858 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTER [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.3S
173.5W AT 300600UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD08F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 600HPA. TD08F LIES
IN A LOW UPPER DIVERGENT AND LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
******

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.2S
170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. A 300917Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C).  
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH 99P
MAINTAINING AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.2S 170.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301217Z ASMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. A 300917Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH A SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15
TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH 99P MAINTAINING
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC降評至Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 170.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 172.1W, APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF TONGA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) QUICKLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

king111807

JTWC撤評

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 170.8W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.