alu

基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 S
擾動編號日期：2026 年 03 月 02 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 03 月 00 日 00 時
93S INVEST 260306 0000 16.5S 122.0E SHEM 15 1009

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.5S
122.0E, APPROXIMATELY 88 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THIS AREA REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS PREDICT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 122.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 121.0E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS NOW MOVED
RAPIDLY OFFSHORE, FEATURING DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 TO 31 C), GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL WEST TRACK OF 93S IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

BoM編號30U

Tropical Low 30U
Moderate chance of Tropical Low 30U developing into a tropical cyclone well north of the Pilbara coast from Friday to early Sunday.
Forecast Track Maps are being issued for 30U and should be referred to for more detailed information.
Tropical low 30U, located north of Port Hedland is forecast to move westwards and remain well off the Pilbara coast.
Environmental conditions are mixed for development. The chance of 30U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate from Friday to early Sunday.
By early next week the system moves into an unfavourable environment over open waters well west of the WA mainland, and it is likely to weaken.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 051430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421Z MAR 26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5S 116.5E TO 17.6S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 116.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 121.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION LARGELY
DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
DELAY THE CONSOLIDATION OF 93S WHILE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 041430).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061430Z.
//
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