king111807

  熱帶氣旋  
編號：13-20252026 ( 29 S )
名稱：Indusa

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2026 年 03 月 29 日 20 時
JTWC升格日期:2026 年 04 月 02 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2026 年 04 月 02 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 04 月 06 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國氣象局 (MFR)：70 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：90 kts ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：972 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
99S.INVEST.15kts-0mb-8.9S-71.4E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2S
76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 237 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH
FLARING CONVECTION AND ELEVATED WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SYSTEM. 99S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WHILE ALSO
BEING PLACED WITHIN A POCKET OF LIGHTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS) OPPOSED TO THE SURROUNDING AREA (25-30 KNOTS). A FACTOR THAT CAN
NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE SYSTEM IS A LARGE DRY AIR MASS TO THE WEST THAT
WILL BE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF 99S AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRANSIT AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.6S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 75.9E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION. A 311629Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED 15-20 KNOT
WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF 99S FURTHER DEVELOPING AND TAKING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

king111807

MFR編號第13號

WTIO30 FMEE 011349
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/13/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2026/04/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0 S / 74.1 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/02 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 220 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 65

24H: 2026/04/02 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/04/03 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2026/04/03 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/04 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/04/04 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 29.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

A LOW-PRESSURE AREA FORMED EARLIER THIS WEEK SOUTHEAT OF THE CHAGOS
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATIVELY 430 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AN INITIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 1.5 CAN THUS BE ESTABLISHED FROM
THIS WEDNESDAY APRIL 1 AT 00UTC.

THE ASCAT SWATHS FROM 1701Z YESTERDAY AND 0333Z THIS MORNING ALLOWED
US TO TRACK THE SYSTEM AND INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION SUBSIDED DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT BASED ON THE LATEST
AVAILABLE ASCAT SWATH, WITH A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.0.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING IT ONTO A
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS
LOW, EVEN THOUGH THE U.S. GFS MODEL SUGGESTS A SLOWER MOVEMENT IN THE
EARLY STAGES DUE TO A RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER EAST THAN IN OTHER
AVAILABLE FORECASTS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR 29AOC). DEEP-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SET IN AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3S 74.9E TO 15.3S 72.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.6S 74.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 10.8S
75.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 74.8E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS 99S AS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS,
THE STRONGEST TURNING IS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD SIDE OF THE LLCC BASED
ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR
LESS), GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ON AGREEMENT WITH
SWIFT DEVELOPMENT AND A STEADY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021500Z.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC升格29S

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011721ZAPR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 73.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 73.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 12.3S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 13.8S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 15.8S 71.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 18.3S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 25.4S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 32.4S 74.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 36.5S 79.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 73.6E.
02APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
268 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
020000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 011730).//
NNNN

king111807

MFR升格中度熱帶風暴，命名Indusa

WTIO30 FMEE 020641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.1 S / 73.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/02 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 65

24H: 2026/04/03 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/04/03 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2026/04/04 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2026/04/04 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2026/04/05 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/06 06 UTC: 34.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 95

120H: 2026/04/07 06 UTC: 37.2 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH
BETTER ORGANISATION BUT HIGHER TOP TEMPERATURES. THE F17 MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 0114Z SHOWS A RING AT 37 GHZ WITH THE BEGINNING OF A RING
AT 85 GHZ, AND THE SAR PASS FROM 0052Z MEASURES MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS
OF 40 KT, INDICATING AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAKA  S
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ON THE CURVED BAND IS 3.0, WHILE THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS USING AIDT SUGGESTS 35A  40 KT. THE SYSTEM WAS THEREFORE
NAMED INDUSA THIS MORNING, GIVEN THAT IT HAD ALREADY REACHED MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM STAGE LAST NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, FORCING IT ONTO A
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM,
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK IS LOW AND IS RELATED TO
THE SYSTEM'S VELOCITY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC
POTENTIAL (SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR 29AOC). DEEP-LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS, WHILE ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
THEREFORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF
THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

king111807

MFR升格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 030020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/13/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (INDUSA)

2.A POSITION 2026/04/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 73.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 35 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/04/03 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/04/04 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/04/04 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/04/05 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/04/05 12 UTC: 29.7 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

72H: 2026/04/06 00 UTC: 33.3 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/04/07 00 UTC: 38.0 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN INDUSA HAS PICKED UP
AGAIN WITHIN A LARGER AND MORE WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE
GCOM-W SWATH FROM 2044 UTC DOES NOT SHOW A CLEAR EYE AT 85 GHZ, BUT
THE INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IN THE FOLLOWING 3 HOURS ALLOWS
INDUSA TO BE UPGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. FOR THE TIME BEING,
WE ARE GIVING PRECEDENCE TO THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK-MET ANALYSIS, WHICH
IS 3.5, CORROBORATED BY THE OBJECTIVE ADT ANALYSIS. WE THEREFORE
ESTIMATE MAXIMUM AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF INDUSA, FORCING IT ONTO A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD, TRAPPED
BETWEEN THE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK IS LOW
AND MAINLY CONCERNS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT SPEED.

REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM WEAK
WIND DEEP SHEAR; IT IS MOVING OVER WATERS WITH HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL
(SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO 28AOC) BUT ITS INTENSIFICATION IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED BY A LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DEEP-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE IMPROVEMENT
OF THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE THEREFORE
FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY, APRIL 4. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY, LOSING ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE START OF THE NEXT WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=