10P.Garry 中心與對流分離強度明顯減弱＊

阿隆 · 2013-1-17 23:59

編號24hrs後增強為20kts,螺旋性正建構中。
由於雲系對流旺盛+勢力向赤道延伸,晚間已引發【西太】近赤道低緯的弱擾動隱然浮現,所以這隻的接續強度發展與勢力趨向如何?我覺應給予高度關注!

阿隆 · 2013-1-18 14:37

評價LOW,但部分勢力已越過赤道以北形成較強對流雲系,讓西太低緯又熱鬧起來囉:lol

桑達 · 2013-1-18 22:38

本帖最後由桑達於 2013-1-18 22:47 編輯

評價升到medium前面的風切有點強，ec不太看好它的發展
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
170.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 172.3E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
181036Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 181034Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.