t02436

  強烈氣旋風暴 / 熱帶風暴  
   編號：BOB 06 (04B)
   名稱：Helen

  基本資料     
   擾動編號日期 ：2013  年 11 月 19 日 03  時     
    命名日期　　   ：2013  年 11 月 20 日 14  時
　消散日期　　   ：2013  年 11 月 23 日 23  時
   登陸地點          : 印度 安德拉邦 默蘇利珀德姆

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    印度氣象局(IMD)： 50   kts (   SCS   )
    美國海軍 (JTWC)： 60   kts (    TS    )
    海平面最低氣壓  ：994  百帕

  過去路徑圖  


討論帖圖片
91B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-13.8N-90.9W


以上資料來自 : JTWC、IMD、颱風論壇編輯製作

krichard2011

JTWC最新一報已評Low
螺旋看起來還不錯

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8N 89.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS PROJECT VERY WEAK
DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

升評Medium!

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. A 181352Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 181512Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER WINDS (25 TO 30 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011

目前雛形已經開始明顯了
JTWC發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 182207Z TRMM 85
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 181812Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND STRONGER WINDS
(25 TO 30 KNOTS) OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436

風力達標35Kts!
升格04B
明後兩天就可能登陸

stavies

CWB罕見給非管區的系統 給予熱帶性低氣壓的評價

SHYUDOL

半夜IMD把它升個為DD(深低壓) 預估未來有機會增強回CS(氣旋風暴)
Time of issue: 2230 hours IST Dated: 19-11-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB06/2013/05
Sub: Deep Depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal
Pre-Cyclone Watch for south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamilnadu coasts
The depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 19thth November 2013 near latitude 15.00N and longitude 85.00E, about 550 km east-northeast of Chennai, 430 km east-southeast of Machilipatnam and 350 km south-southeast of Vishakhapatnam. The system would further intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. It would move west-northwestwards for some time, then west-southwestward and cross south Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coast between Chennai and Ongole, close to Kavali around night of 21stst November 2013.
Track and intensity forecasts of the system are given in the table below:

Date/Time(IST)	Position (Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)	Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph)	Category
19-11-2013/2030	15.0/85.0	55-65GUSTING TO 75	DEEP DEPRESSION
19-11-2013/2330	15.2/84.8	55-65GUSTING TO 75	DEEP DEPRESSION
20-11-2013/0530	15.4/84.5	60-70 GUSTING TO 80	CYCLONIC STORM
20-11-2013/1130	15.4/84.0	70-80 GUSTING TO 90	CYCLONIC STORM
20-11-2013/1730	15.4/83.5	80-90 GUSTING TO 100	CYCLONIC STORM
21-11-2013/0530	15.2/82.5	80-90 GUSTING TO 100	CYCLONIC STORM
21-11-2013/1730	15.0/81.2	80-90 GUSTING TO 100	CYCLONIC STORM
22-11-2013/0530	14.8/79.9	60-70 GUSTING TO 80	CYCLONIC STORM
22-11-2013/1730	14.5/78.5	45-55 GUSTING TO 65	DEPRESSION

krichard2011

這種形態居然還沒升CS
從底層掃瞄來看 底層風眼算是開了
高層風眼也正在清空當中
下午應該就有機會命名了
而且上看SCS