98P 中心再度登陸發展受限

t02436 · 2014-2-8 07:54

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 12:23 編輯

  基本資料
編號　　　　：98 P
擾動編號日期：2014 年 02 月 08 日 07  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 02 月 12 日 11  時
　登陸地點　　：暫無
98P.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-16.4S-141.4E

甜心 · 2014-2-8 17:32

好漂亮的螺旋看起來就像個一般風暴，不過好像還只是個低氣壓但應該已經增強為TD了吧只是太近陸了吧會對它後期發展有很大影響耶。

t02436 · 2014-2-8 18:36

好吧沒人發沒人改...
編號後立即評級Medium
06Z給25Kts

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
141.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5S 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH SHALLOW FORMATIVE BANDS, MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE LLCC IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND
HAD JUST DRIFTED OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK BACK INTO LAND BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS. NUMERIC MODELS SUPPORT THIS ASSESSMENT. BASED ON NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2014-2-9 15:21

降評LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO UNRAVEL AS IT DRIFTED BACK
ONSHORE. THE RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT STILL FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED AND EASILY
DISCERNIBLE ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE
LLCC IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND DEEPER INLAND. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER, SINCE THE SYSTEM
IS NOW FIRMLY LAND-BASED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECURVE TOWARDS
WATER, NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. NUMERIC MODELS
SUPPORT THIS ASSESSMENT. BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

螺旋性依然明顯
指示應該剩高層雲系
底層沒什麼東西= =
有裸奔情況產生...

t02436 · 2014-2-10 23:00

中心再度登陸北領地
應該是沒什麼機會了

Tropical Low is located well inland of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria
coast. The low is expected to move southwestwards across central parts of the
Territory during the next couple of days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday       Very Low
Wednesday    Very Low
Thursday       Very Low