t02436

  二級熱帶氣旋  
   編號：16 P ( 15 F )  
   名稱：Kofi

  基本資料   
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 02 月 23 日 00 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 03 月 01 日 09 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 03 月 04 日 18 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)          ：  50   kt  (    TS    )
    斐濟氣象局 (FMS)        ：  45   kt  (  Cat.1  )
    紐西蘭氣象局 (MSNZ)：  55   kt  (  Cat.2  ) - 註：2014.03.03 00Z UTC由紐西蘭接手
    海平面最低氣壓            ： 980  百帕

  過去路徑圖  
  討論帖圖片  
92P.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-15S-165E



以上資料來自 : JTWC、FMS、MSNZ、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

FMS昨天下午編號14F

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 24/0901 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.3S 169.3E
AT 240900UTC. TD14F SLOW MOVING. POSTION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY NEAR
LLCC PAST 12 HOURS. TD14F LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.4S 172.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT
IN A 242125Z ASCAT PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30
DEGREES CELSIUS AND CYCLONIC HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE ALSO FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BECAUSE A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
172.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 173.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242219Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 250332Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPED
INTO THE LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPERLEVEL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW VWS AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND CYCLONIC
HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE ALSO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

甜心

:)這隻看起來好像還滿有看頭的目前各氣象站對它前景大致看好只要別太快南轉。

甜心

今天給它看起來還是一樣只是小小的低氣壓發展挺慢的，大家偶爾也來看看這邊的擾動系統吧期待你們更多的意見跟回覆。

蜜露

南半球颱風發展沒有像西北太平洋颱風這麼活躍.

經過了1月多到現在. 快3月


12~1月中還滿活躍.
但從1月多至現在有些發展都不如預期.

還記得05年的南半球. 連續4個都125kt以上 Meena ,Nancy ,Olaf ,Percy

要等3月後看看了