krichard2011

  基本資料     
    編號　　　　： 16 F ( 94 P )
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 02 月 27 日 18  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 03 月 05 日 20  時
　登陸地點　　：無
94P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-14.3S-159.4

t02436

FMS早上編號16F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 160.0E AT
270600UTC. TD16F MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION POOR. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. TD16F
LIES NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR TD16F.

BoM今天早上的三天展望

There are no significant lows in the region at this time. A weak low south of
the Solomon Islands will move westwards and may develop further over the coming
days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday          Very low   
Saturday        Very low   
Sunday          Low

EC預測將緩步移向珊瑚海發展
目前看來有機會成旋

甜心

這隻結構目前很不錯耶應該已經生成TD了吧，螺旋度很漂亮有氣旋(颱風)氣勢。

不過目前路徑看來它後期有滿高機率可能侵襲澳洲東北當地民眾還是得注意一下未來動向。

甜心

今天威力看起來有小幅度增強目前上看Cat1，不過風切有點強氣流旋的很不順中心雲牆建立中。

krichard2011

JTWC 升評Low 這隻整體看起來不錯
但是LLCC似乎有點裸奔的情形
還需要整合一下 數值大致支持它未來能達到不錯的強度

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S 156.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282322Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
DISPLACED WEST OF A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, AS EVIDENT IN A 282319Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ALSO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

甜心

krichard2011 發表於 2014-3-1 16:36
JTWC 升評Low 這隻整體看起來不錯
但是LLCC似乎有點裸奔的情形
還需要整合一下 數值大致支持它未來能達到不 ...

大大它東方那個好像也快形成氣旋了東北澳這邊已經好一陣子沒雙旋過了，可是兩者看起來有點接近不知道會不會發生南半球版的藤原效應。

t02436

取消評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S
152.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

甜心

t02436 發表於 2014-3-3 15:38
取消評級

真可惜就這樣被徹掉了不過還看的到它說只是不知道還有沒有重評的機會。