t02436

  五級熱帶氣旋  
    編號：14 U ( 17 P )
    名稱：Gillian

  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 03 月 06 日 14  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 03 月 08 日 13  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 03 月 29 日 14  時
　登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 昆士蘭州 歐魯昆郡
　　　　　　　　東帝汶 維克克縣
　　　　　　　　印尼 東努沙登加拉省
　　　　　　　　印尼 西努沙登加拉省 比馬
　　　　　　　　印尼 峇里省

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)    ： 140  kts  (  CAT 5  )                              
    澳洲氣象局 (BOM)  ： 110  kts  (  CAT 5  )
    印尼氣象局(BMKG)： 110  kts  (  CAT 5  ) - 註：2014.03.18 12Z UTC由BMKG接手
    海平面最低氣壓　  ： 937  百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無
  討論帖圖片  




98P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-9.7S-138.5E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、BOM、BMKG、颱風論壇整理製作

甜心

大大發的是這隻對吧看起來與旁邊那陀有生成雙旋局勢，不過這隻還很鬆散需要時間整合環流跟建立螺旋性。

t02436

直接評級Medium 持續南移中
估計稍晚BoM就會對其編號

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 9.8S 138.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 062353Z METOP-B IMAGE
DEPICTS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH
FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 062353Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM

甜心

t02436 發表於 2014-3-7 11:42
直接評級Medium 持續南移中
估計稍晚BoM就會對其編號

澳洲氣象站用跳級的升格喔:o他們標準很嚴很少這樣耶有點驚訝到，南移的話不是對北澳很不利嗎??...從大大給的雲圖看來好有氣勢結構變的好扎實不久應該會生成熱帶風暴了。



補個圖目前衛星彩圖看起來跟我們這邊的輕颱規模差不多。

t02436

BoM果然編號了~
剛剛編號14U
上望澳式C2

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0835 UTC 07/03/2014
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 14U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 138.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [130 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/9HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1010 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  07/1200: 10.1S 138.8E:     040 [080]:  025  [045]: 1007
+12:  07/1800: 10.4S 139.0E:     055 [100]:  025  [045]: 1006
+18:  08/0000: 10.6S 139.2E:     065 [125]:  025  [045]: 1007
+24:  08/0600: 10.7S 139.4E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]: 1004
+36:  08/1800: 11.1S 139.8E:     100 [185]:  035  [065]: 1001
+48:  09/0600: 11.7S 140.6E:     120 [220]:  045  [085]:  995
+60:  09/1800: 12.5S 141.6E:     140 [255]:  050  [095]:  993
+72:  10/0600: 13.7S 142.3E:     155 [290]:  035  [065]: 1001
+96:  11/0600: 16.3S 142.1E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]: 1006
+120: 12/0600: 17.0S 141.7E:     290 [535]:  030  [055]: 1011

KINGRIC

JTWC 發布TCFA
底層也很有樣子
BOM認為下一報就有機會升格命名了...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8S
138.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 139.6E, APPROXIMATELY 210
NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 072251z SSMIS ADDITIONALLY SHOWS RAPIDLY IMPROVING
STRUCTURE WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A CONSOLIDATING
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
HIGHLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

甜心

今天雲圖看起來98p變胖了而且圓滾滾的，想必過去一段時間它已經吸足了水氣接下可能開始對流暴發或開啟風眼增強為旋風。

KINGRIC

BOM正式升格澳式C1
命名為Gillian 後期上看澳式C2