t02436

  基本資料     
    編號　　　　： 90 S
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 03 月 07 日 20  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 03 月 12 日 15  時
　登陸地點　　：暫無

90S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-6.9S-52.1E

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9S 52.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM WITH AN
EASILY DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH
A DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE ALONG A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODELS, HOWEVER, SHOW MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
IN VIEW OF THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

甜心

KINGRIC

這底層是想要組小鋼砲型的TC嗎...
這底層超迷你的說
附近垂直風切趨近於零
加上低緯與結構小巧有利整合的優勢
再撞陸之前應該是有機會發展起來的...

甜心

哎唷這隻真的有夠萌的都經過一天了還是小小一隻不過有增胖了，今雲圖看起來強度有增強一些不過外圍環流擴增不少。

t02436

取消評級
看來應該是沒啥機會了

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 49.4E,
HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KINGRIC

受到強大乾區的凌虐
整個對流幾乎消散殆盡
雖然風切微弱 但環境相當乾燥
對它的發展相當不利
這隻看起來應該是沒什麼機會發展了

甜心

好像消散了雲圖上幾乎看不到它的型態，北方乾空氣過去一天到現在還是很強它應該是夭折了。