92P 乾區侵擾發展不易

新細明體 · 2014-3-15 03:13

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 12:19 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：20 F ( 92 P )
擾動編號日期：2014 年 03 月 15 日 03 時　
消散日期　　：2014 年 03 月 21 日 22 時
　登陸地點　　：無
92P INVEST 140314 1800 13.0S 175.0E SHEM 15 NA

krichard2011 · 2014-3-15 15:33

目前整體強對流還算滿集中的
與之前Hadi東移之後結構散架來比已經有相當大改善
風切也約弱到中等對他未來的發展還算可以接受
從好幾報之前GFS就一直認為說它將在接近東澳時快速發展
能發展到怎麼樣的程度就看他囉...

甜心 · 2014-3-15 19:08

Hadi 風暴終於重生了不過樣子怎麼還是沒有甚麼長進一樣小小一隻，從今天的雲圖觀察看起來螺旋形態好像有比較深了強度可能在提升當中。

t02436 · 2014-3-16 09:15

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8S 170.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 503 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING OVER A BROAD, UNDEFINED LLCC. A 152227Z METOP-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS SHOWS A 15 TO
20 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER CORE WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.