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AWIO20 FMEE 261134
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2014/03/26 AT 1200 UTC
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The East-Northeasterly monsoon inflow is weak all over the width of the basin.
The associated convective activity is present from the African coastlines to 90E between 6S and
20S, more active along the African coasts, and over the northern part of the Mozambican channel
North of 16S, and also East of 65E, between the monsoon flow and the western flow, North of the
area of low pressure, between 65E and 80E, and from 10S to 40S.
The monsoon flow will weaken progressively up to the end of this week, and remain located over
the western part of the basin. The subtropical anticyclone will shift south of 35S on the southern
edge of the wide area of low pressure persistent over the central part of the basin for the next days.
A new subtropical anticyclone arriving south of Madagascar, and tracking very lowly eastwards is
expected to generate a persistent South South-east flow in the canal on Friday and Saturday,
converging with the monsoon flow in the north.
Upper levels conditions over the area are favourable to cyclogenesis with a good upper divergence
under the axis of the upper level ridge for the next days.
The disturbed weather over an area extending from the african coasts to The Comoros, is forecasted
to continue, and temporarily generates a sustained rainy-thundery activity over Mayotte and The
Comoros, and the northern coast of Mozambique for the next days.
The available NWP models (deterministic and ensemble prediction system) still suggest the
deepening of a weak circulation up to Friday in this area.
The likehood that a Tropical Depression develops over the basin is low Thursday. it becomes
moderate from Friday to Monday.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%