SHYUDOL

  基本資料     
    編號　　　　：98 P   
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 04 月 01 日 04  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 04 月 07 日 03  時
　登陸地點　　：暫無
98P.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.25.1S.168.1W

krichard2011

這不太像是要變性成溫帶氣旋的感覺
對流似乎有明顯爆出的感覺
連這底層......

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.6S 167.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 752 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. RECENT ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATED SYSTEM WITH COOL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. A 312102Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS
IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND NORTH OF POLAR JET WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE LLCC IN A STRONG (30+ KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON THIS DATA, THIS SYSTEM IS
CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 988 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

這系統還挺特別的 對流雖然微弱些
這底層依然給力
不過北方的乾空氣應該是對這系統
發展上的一大障礙
但不排除還是有機會變成副熱帶氣旋

甜心

今天98p低氣壓被評級Low了阿人家注意它很多天了說，前天一直想說澳洲東方海面上這團是乎有在慢慢發展今天看起來略有螺旋形態出現不過結構還有點鬆散主體雲系還未完全建立好。

krichard2011

JTWC跳級升40kts 風速達標
究竟是升格了 還是還沒升
還不清楚 不過熱帶氣旋的性質還挺明顯的

t02436

升評Medium
還沒升格

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.6S
167.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.6S 164.3W, APPROXIMATELY 937 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM WITH A BROKEN
FRONTAL BAND WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE EASTERN
QUADRANTS. THE ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS AN
ISOLATED SYSTEM SLOWLY GAINING ORGANIZATION AND SYMMETRY FUELED BY
INTERMITTENT CHANNELS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. A 010928Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS REVEALS 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG (20-40 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS. AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE A WARM SURFACE ANOMALY PROBABLY DUE TO FRONTAL PROCESSES AS
WELL AS A WARM UPPER LEVEL ANOMALY. BASED ON ANALYSIS THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. HOWEVER, THE FRONTAL BAND
APPEARS TO BE BREAKING AND THE SYSTEM IS GAINING SYMMETRY. FSU
CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS INDICATE AN ASYMMETRIC WARM-CORE SYSTEM
TRENDING TOWARD A SYMMETRIC WARM-CORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 988 MB. DUE TO BREAKING FRONTAL BAND AND
IMPROVING SYMMETRY THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

krichard2011

此外紐西蘭氣象局MetService
也對這個系統發出SW 預測在未來的6到24小時
有機會再增強到50kt
不過最近一張風場 似乎就已經掃出50kt了
不知道稍後有沒有機會升格 話說他的緯度還挺高的

STORM WARNING 020
This affects ocean areas: SUBTROPIC and PACIFIC
AT 020000UTC
Low 990hPa near 29S 165W moving south 10kt.
1. Within 300 nautical miles of low in southern semicircle: Clockwise 40kt rising to 50kt next 6-12 hours.
2. Outside area 1 and within 180 nautical miles of low in northern semicircle: Clockwise 35kt at times.
Storm and gale areas moving with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 017.

Issued at 1:05pm Wednesday 2 Apr 2014